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Effectiveness of Isolation Policies in Schools: Evidence from a Mathematical Model of Influenza and COVID-19
BACKGROUND: Non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing, school closures and travel restrictions are often implemented to control outbreaks of infectious diseases. For influenza in schools, the Center of Disease Control (CDC) recommends that febrile students remain isolated at home un...
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
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Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7276029/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32511602 http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.26.20044750 |
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author | Burns, Adam A. C. Gutfraind, Alexander |
author_facet | Burns, Adam A. C. Gutfraind, Alexander |
author_sort | Burns, Adam A. C. |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: Non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing, school closures and travel restrictions are often implemented to control outbreaks of infectious diseases. For influenza in schools, the Center of Disease Control (CDC) recommends that febrile students remain isolated at home until they have been fever-free for at least one day and a related policy is recommended for SARS-CoV2 (COVID-19). Other authors proposed using a school week of four or fewer days of in-person instruction for all students to reduce transmission. However, there is limited evidence supporting the effectiveness of these interventions. METHODS: We introduced a mathematical model of school outbreaks that considers both intervention methods. Our model accounts for the school structure and schedule, as well as the time-progression of fever symptoms and viral shedding. The model was validated on outbreaks of seasonal and pandemic influenza and COVID-19 in schools. It was then used to estimate the outbreak curves and the proportion of the population infected (attack rate) under the proposed interventions. RESULTS: For influenza, the CDC-recommended one day of post-fever isolation can reduce the attack rate by a median (interquartile range) of 29 (13 – 59)%. With two days of post-fever isolation the attack rate could be reduced by 70 (55 – 85)%. Alternatively, shortening the school week to four and three days reduces the attack rate by 73 (64 – 88)% and 93 (91 – 97)%, respectively. For COVID-19, application of post-fever isolation policy was found to be less effective and reduced the attack rate by 10 (5 – 17)% for a two-day isolation policy and by 14 (5 – 26)% for 14 days. A four-day school week would reduce the median attack rate in a COVID-19 outbreak by 57 (52 – 64)%, while a three-day school week would reduce it by 81 (79 – 83)%. In both infections, shortening the school week significantly reduced the duration of outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS: Shortening the school week could be an important tool for controlling influenza and COVID-19 in schools and similar settings. Additionally, the CDC-recommended post-fever isolation policy for influenza could be enhanced by requiring two days of isolation instead of one. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7276029 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-72760292020-06-07 Effectiveness of Isolation Policies in Schools: Evidence from a Mathematical Model of Influenza and COVID-19 Burns, Adam A. C. Gutfraind, Alexander medRxiv Article BACKGROUND: Non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing, school closures and travel restrictions are often implemented to control outbreaks of infectious diseases. For influenza in schools, the Center of Disease Control (CDC) recommends that febrile students remain isolated at home until they have been fever-free for at least one day and a related policy is recommended for SARS-CoV2 (COVID-19). Other authors proposed using a school week of four or fewer days of in-person instruction for all students to reduce transmission. However, there is limited evidence supporting the effectiveness of these interventions. METHODS: We introduced a mathematical model of school outbreaks that considers both intervention methods. Our model accounts for the school structure and schedule, as well as the time-progression of fever symptoms and viral shedding. The model was validated on outbreaks of seasonal and pandemic influenza and COVID-19 in schools. It was then used to estimate the outbreak curves and the proportion of the population infected (attack rate) under the proposed interventions. RESULTS: For influenza, the CDC-recommended one day of post-fever isolation can reduce the attack rate by a median (interquartile range) of 29 (13 – 59)%. With two days of post-fever isolation the attack rate could be reduced by 70 (55 – 85)%. Alternatively, shortening the school week to four and three days reduces the attack rate by 73 (64 – 88)% and 93 (91 – 97)%, respectively. For COVID-19, application of post-fever isolation policy was found to be less effective and reduced the attack rate by 10 (5 – 17)% for a two-day isolation policy and by 14 (5 – 26)% for 14 days. A four-day school week would reduce the median attack rate in a COVID-19 outbreak by 57 (52 – 64)%, while a three-day school week would reduce it by 81 (79 – 83)%. In both infections, shortening the school week significantly reduced the duration of outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS: Shortening the school week could be an important tool for controlling influenza and COVID-19 in schools and similar settings. Additionally, the CDC-recommended post-fever isolation policy for influenza could be enhanced by requiring two days of isolation instead of one. Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory 2020-11-23 /pmc/articles/PMC7276029/ /pubmed/32511602 http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.26.20044750 Text en https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which allows reusers to distribute, remix, adapt, and build upon the material in any medium or format, so long as attribution is given to the creator. The license allows for commercial use. |
spellingShingle | Article Burns, Adam A. C. Gutfraind, Alexander Effectiveness of Isolation Policies in Schools: Evidence from a Mathematical Model of Influenza and COVID-19 |
title | Effectiveness of Isolation Policies in Schools: Evidence from a Mathematical Model of Influenza and COVID-19 |
title_full | Effectiveness of Isolation Policies in Schools: Evidence from a Mathematical Model of Influenza and COVID-19 |
title_fullStr | Effectiveness of Isolation Policies in Schools: Evidence from a Mathematical Model of Influenza and COVID-19 |
title_full_unstemmed | Effectiveness of Isolation Policies in Schools: Evidence from a Mathematical Model of Influenza and COVID-19 |
title_short | Effectiveness of Isolation Policies in Schools: Evidence from a Mathematical Model of Influenza and COVID-19 |
title_sort | effectiveness of isolation policies in schools: evidence from a mathematical model of influenza and covid-19 |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7276029/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32511602 http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.26.20044750 |
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