Cargando…

Fast spread of COVID-19 in Europe and the US suggests the necessity of early, strong and comprehensive interventions

The COVID-19 pandemic caused more than 800,000 infections and 40,000 deaths by the end of March 2020. However, some of the basic epidemiological parameters, such as the exponential epidemic growth rate and R(0) are debated. We developed an inference approach to control for confounding factors in dat...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Ke, Ruian, Sanche, Steven, Romero-Severson, Ethan, Hengartner, Nick
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7276046/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32511619
http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.04.20050427
_version_ 1783542884031528960
author Ke, Ruian
Sanche, Steven
Romero-Severson, Ethan
Hengartner, Nick
author_facet Ke, Ruian
Sanche, Steven
Romero-Severson, Ethan
Hengartner, Nick
author_sort Ke, Ruian
collection PubMed
description The COVID-19 pandemic caused more than 800,000 infections and 40,000 deaths by the end of March 2020. However, some of the basic epidemiological parameters, such as the exponential epidemic growth rate and R(0) are debated. We developed an inference approach to control for confounding factors in data collection, such as underreporting and changes in surveillance intensities, and fitted a mathematical model to infection and death count data collected from eight European countries and the US. In all countries, the early epidemic grew exponentially at rates between 0.19–0.29/day (epidemic doubling times between 2.4–3.7 days). This suggests a highly infectious virus with an R(0) likely between 4.0 and 7.1. We show that similar levels of intervention efforts are needed, no matter the goal is mitigation or containment. Early, strong and comprehensive intervention efforts to achieve greater than 74–86% reduction in transmission are necessary.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-7276046
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2020
publisher Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-72760462020-06-07 Fast spread of COVID-19 in Europe and the US suggests the necessity of early, strong and comprehensive interventions Ke, Ruian Sanche, Steven Romero-Severson, Ethan Hengartner, Nick medRxiv Article The COVID-19 pandemic caused more than 800,000 infections and 40,000 deaths by the end of March 2020. However, some of the basic epidemiological parameters, such as the exponential epidemic growth rate and R(0) are debated. We developed an inference approach to control for confounding factors in data collection, such as underreporting and changes in surveillance intensities, and fitted a mathematical model to infection and death count data collected from eight European countries and the US. In all countries, the early epidemic grew exponentially at rates between 0.19–0.29/day (epidemic doubling times between 2.4–3.7 days). This suggests a highly infectious virus with an R(0) likely between 4.0 and 7.1. We show that similar levels of intervention efforts are needed, no matter the goal is mitigation or containment. Early, strong and comprehensive intervention efforts to achieve greater than 74–86% reduction in transmission are necessary. Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory 2020-04-15 /pmc/articles/PMC7276046/ /pubmed/32511619 http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.04.20050427 Text en https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Ke, Ruian
Sanche, Steven
Romero-Severson, Ethan
Hengartner, Nick
Fast spread of COVID-19 in Europe and the US suggests the necessity of early, strong and comprehensive interventions
title Fast spread of COVID-19 in Europe and the US suggests the necessity of early, strong and comprehensive interventions
title_full Fast spread of COVID-19 in Europe and the US suggests the necessity of early, strong and comprehensive interventions
title_fullStr Fast spread of COVID-19 in Europe and the US suggests the necessity of early, strong and comprehensive interventions
title_full_unstemmed Fast spread of COVID-19 in Europe and the US suggests the necessity of early, strong and comprehensive interventions
title_short Fast spread of COVID-19 in Europe and the US suggests the necessity of early, strong and comprehensive interventions
title_sort fast spread of covid-19 in europe and the us suggests the necessity of early, strong and comprehensive interventions
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7276046/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32511619
http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.04.20050427
work_keys_str_mv AT keruian fastspreadofcovid19ineuropeandtheussuggeststhenecessityofearlystrongandcomprehensiveinterventions
AT sanchesteven fastspreadofcovid19ineuropeandtheussuggeststhenecessityofearlystrongandcomprehensiveinterventions
AT romeroseversonethan fastspreadofcovid19ineuropeandtheussuggeststhenecessityofearlystrongandcomprehensiveinterventions
AT hengartnernick fastspreadofcovid19ineuropeandtheussuggeststhenecessityofearlystrongandcomprehensiveinterventions