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Predicted Effects of Stopping COVID-19 Lockdown on Italian Hospital Demand
OBJECTIVES: Italy has been one of the first countries to implement mitigation measures to curb the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. There is currently a debate on when and how such measures should be loosened. To forecast the demand for hospital intensive care unit (ICU) and non-ICU bed...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Cambridge University Press
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7276503/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32418556 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/dmp.2020.157 |
Sumario: | OBJECTIVES: Italy has been one of the first countries to implement mitigation measures to curb the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. There is currently a debate on when and how such measures should be loosened. To forecast the demand for hospital intensive care unit (ICU) and non-ICU beds for COVID-19 patients from May to September, we developed 2 models, assuming a gradual easing of restrictions or an intermittent lockdown. METHODS: We used a compartmental model to evaluate 2 scenarios: (A) an intermittent lockdown; (B) a gradual relaxation of the lockdown. Predicted ICU and non-ICU demand was compared with the peak in hospital bed use observed in April 2020. RESULTS: Under scenario A, while ICU demand will remain below the peak, the number of non-ICU will substantially rise and will exceed it (133%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 94-171). Under scenario B, a rise in ICU and non-ICU demand will start in July and will progressively increase over the summer 2020, reaching 95% (95% CI: 71-121) and 237% (95% CI: 191-282) of the April peak. CONCLUSIONS: Italian hospital demand is likely to remain high in the next months. If restrictions are reduced, planning for the next several months should consider an increase in health-care resources to maintain surge capacity across the country. |
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