Typhoon track change–based emergency shelter location–allocation model: a case study of Wenchang in Hainan province, China

BACKGROUND: Determining the locations of disaster emergency shelters and the allocation of impacted residents are key components in shelter planning and emergency management. Various models have been developed to solve this location–allocation problem, but gaps remain regarding the processes of hazards. This study attempts to develop a model based on the change of typhoon track that addresses the location–allocation problem for typhoon emergency shelters. PURPOSE: To consider the changes in candidate shelters and number of evacuees due to the change in impact area with the progression of a typhoon. METHODS: The proposed model is composed of several static processes and solved by a modified particle swarm optimisation algorithm with a restart strategy. RESULTS: The model is illustrated with the case of the evacuation process for Wenchang in Hainan province during Typhoon Rammasun in 2014 and Typhoon Mirinae in 2016. For the case of Typhoon Rammasun in 2014, the residents from east to west need to evacuate in three phases. For the case of Typhoon Mirinae in 2016, residents in the northern communities need not to evacuate to candidate shelters because they are not affected by the typhoon. CONCLUSION: The proposed model has advantages compared with non-typhoon track change–based model in saving time spent in shelters for residents and saving public resources for the local governments. With the proposed model, a manager could efficiently evacuate residents by considering the typhoon conditions.