Experimental Data Based Machine Learning Classification Models with Predictive Ability to Select in Vitro Active Antiviral and Non-Toxic Essential Oils

In the last decade essential oils have attracted scientists with a constant increase rate of more than 7% as witnessed by almost 5000 articles. Among the prominent studies essential oils are investigated as antibacterial agents alone or in combination with known drugs. Minor studies involved essential oil inspection as potential anticancer and antiviral natural remedies. In line with the authors previous reports the investigation of an in-house library of extracted essential oils as a potential blocker of HSV-1 infection is reported herein. A subset of essential oils was experimentally tested in an in vitro model of HSV-1 infection and the determined IC(50)s and CC(50)s values were used in conjunction with the results obtained by gas-chromatography/mass spectrometry chemical analysis to derive machine learning based classification models trained with the partial least square discriminant analysis algorithm. The internally validated models were thus applied on untested essential oils to assess their effective predictive ability in selecting both active and low toxic samples. Five essential oils were selected among a list of 52 and readily assayed for IC(50) and CC(50) determination. Interestingly, four out of the five selected samples, compared with the potencies of the training set, returned to be highly active and endowed with low toxicity. In particular, sample CJM1 from Calaminta nepeta was the most potent tested essential oil with the highest selectivity index (IC(50) = 0.063 mg/mL, SI > 47.5). In conclusion, it was herein demonstrated how multidisciplinary applications involving machine learning could represent a valuable tool in predicting the bioactivity of complex mixtures and in the near future to enable the design of blended essential oil possibly endowed with higher potency and lower toxicity.