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Declining trend in HIV new infections in Guangxi, China: insights from linking reported HIV/AIDS cases with CD4-at-diagnosis data
BACKGROUND: The Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region bears a relatively high burden of HIV/AIDS infection. The number of accumulatively reported HIV/AIDS cases in Guangxi is the third highest among 31 provinces or Autonomous Region from 2004 to 2007, changed to the second highest between 2011 and 2013,...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
BioMed Central
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7290136/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32532238 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-020-09021-9 |
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author | Sun, Xiaodan Yang, Wenmin Tang, Sanyi Shen, Mingwang Wang, Tianyang Zhu, Qiuying Shen, Zhiyong Tang, Shuai Chen, Huanhuan Ruan, Yuhua Xiao, Yanni |
author_facet | Sun, Xiaodan Yang, Wenmin Tang, Sanyi Shen, Mingwang Wang, Tianyang Zhu, Qiuying Shen, Zhiyong Tang, Shuai Chen, Huanhuan Ruan, Yuhua Xiao, Yanni |
author_sort | Sun, Xiaodan |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: The Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region bears a relatively high burden of HIV/AIDS infection. The number of accumulatively reported HIV/AIDS cases in Guangxi is the third highest among 31 provinces or Autonomous Region from 2004 to 2007, changed to the second highest between 2011 and 2013, then returned to the third highest again after 2014. We aim to estimate the new infections and evaluate the real-time HIV epidemic in Guangxi, China, in order to reveal the rule of HIV transmission. METHODS: Firstly, the number of annually reported HIV and AIDS cases, as well as the number of cases linked with CD4 data are extracted from the HIV/AIDS information system in China. Secondly, two CD4-staged models are formulated by linking the with-host information on CD4 level to between-host transmission and surveillance data. Thirdly, new HIV infections, diagnosis rates and undiagnosed infections over time are estimated by using Bayesian method and Maximum Likelihood Estimation method. RESULTS: The data reveal that the newly reported cases have been decreasing since 2011, while lots of cases are identified at late CD4 stage. The data fitted results indicate that both models can describe the trend of the epidemic well. The estimation results show that the new and undiagnosed infections began to decrease from the period2006 - 2008. However, the diagnosis probabilities/rates keep at a very low level, and there are still a large number of infections undiagnosed, most of which have a large probability to be identified at late CD4 stage. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that HIV/AIDS epidemic in Guangxi has been controlled to a certain extent, while the diagnosis rate still needs to be improved. More attentions should be paid to identify infections at their early CD4 stages. Meanwhile, comprehensive intervention measures should be continually strengthened in avoid of the rebound of new infections. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7290136 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | BioMed Central |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-72901362020-06-12 Declining trend in HIV new infections in Guangxi, China: insights from linking reported HIV/AIDS cases with CD4-at-diagnosis data Sun, Xiaodan Yang, Wenmin Tang, Sanyi Shen, Mingwang Wang, Tianyang Zhu, Qiuying Shen, Zhiyong Tang, Shuai Chen, Huanhuan Ruan, Yuhua Xiao, Yanni BMC Public Health Research Article BACKGROUND: The Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region bears a relatively high burden of HIV/AIDS infection. The number of accumulatively reported HIV/AIDS cases in Guangxi is the third highest among 31 provinces or Autonomous Region from 2004 to 2007, changed to the second highest between 2011 and 2013, then returned to the third highest again after 2014. We aim to estimate the new infections and evaluate the real-time HIV epidemic in Guangxi, China, in order to reveal the rule of HIV transmission. METHODS: Firstly, the number of annually reported HIV and AIDS cases, as well as the number of cases linked with CD4 data are extracted from the HIV/AIDS information system in China. Secondly, two CD4-staged models are formulated by linking the with-host information on CD4 level to between-host transmission and surveillance data. Thirdly, new HIV infections, diagnosis rates and undiagnosed infections over time are estimated by using Bayesian method and Maximum Likelihood Estimation method. RESULTS: The data reveal that the newly reported cases have been decreasing since 2011, while lots of cases are identified at late CD4 stage. The data fitted results indicate that both models can describe the trend of the epidemic well. The estimation results show that the new and undiagnosed infections began to decrease from the period2006 - 2008. However, the diagnosis probabilities/rates keep at a very low level, and there are still a large number of infections undiagnosed, most of which have a large probability to be identified at late CD4 stage. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that HIV/AIDS epidemic in Guangxi has been controlled to a certain extent, while the diagnosis rate still needs to be improved. More attentions should be paid to identify infections at their early CD4 stages. Meanwhile, comprehensive intervention measures should be continually strengthened in avoid of the rebound of new infections. BioMed Central 2020-06-12 /pmc/articles/PMC7290136/ /pubmed/32532238 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-020-09021-9 Text en © The Author(s) 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Sun, Xiaodan Yang, Wenmin Tang, Sanyi Shen, Mingwang Wang, Tianyang Zhu, Qiuying Shen, Zhiyong Tang, Shuai Chen, Huanhuan Ruan, Yuhua Xiao, Yanni Declining trend in HIV new infections in Guangxi, China: insights from linking reported HIV/AIDS cases with CD4-at-diagnosis data |
title | Declining trend in HIV new infections in Guangxi, China: insights from linking reported HIV/AIDS cases with CD4-at-diagnosis data |
title_full | Declining trend in HIV new infections in Guangxi, China: insights from linking reported HIV/AIDS cases with CD4-at-diagnosis data |
title_fullStr | Declining trend in HIV new infections in Guangxi, China: insights from linking reported HIV/AIDS cases with CD4-at-diagnosis data |
title_full_unstemmed | Declining trend in HIV new infections in Guangxi, China: insights from linking reported HIV/AIDS cases with CD4-at-diagnosis data |
title_short | Declining trend in HIV new infections in Guangxi, China: insights from linking reported HIV/AIDS cases with CD4-at-diagnosis data |
title_sort | declining trend in hiv new infections in guangxi, china: insights from linking reported hiv/aids cases with cd4-at-diagnosis data |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7290136/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32532238 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12889-020-09021-9 |
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