Nomogram based on blood lipoprotein for estimation of mortality in patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure

BACKGROUND: Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a clinic syndrome with substantial high short-term mortality. It is very important to stratify patients according to prognosis to decide management strategy. This study aimed to formulate and validate a nomogram model based on blood lipoprotein for prediction of 3-month mortality in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related ACLF. METHODS: Data on 393 consecutive patients who were diagnosed as HBV-related ACLF at the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University between June 1, 2013, and February 1, 2015, were prospectively collected. Of these, 260 patients who were collected in an earlier period formed the training cohort for the development of nomogram, while 133 patients who were collected thereafter formed the validation cohort for confirming the performance of nomogram. RESULTS: Multivariate analysis showed that low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), age, prothrombin time, and creatinine were independently associated with 3-month mortality of patients with HBV-related ACLF. Kaplan–Meier survival analysis revealed that the high LDL-C (LDL-C ≥ 1.0 mmol/L, cut-off value) was significantly associated with elevated overall survival (P < 0.001). All independent factors for survival were selected into the nomogram. The calibration plot for the probability of survival showed good agreement between prediction by nomogram and actual observation. CONCLUSION: This study highlighted that reduction of serum LDL-C level was an independent risk factor for the survival in patients with HBV-related ACLF, and the nomogram based on serum LDL-C was an accurate and practical model for predicting the 3-month mortality in patients with this disease.