Cargando…

New estimates of Australia’s centenarian population

INTRODUCTION: The population of Australia at the very highest ages is growing rapidly, like that of many countries. But official population estimates at these ages are of lower quality than those at younger ages, a problem shared by many countries which base their population estimates on census coun...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Wilson, Tom, Terblanche, Wilma
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Swansea University 2018
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7299471/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32935007
http://dx.doi.org/10.23889/ijpds.v3i1.447
_version_ 1783547394791571456
author Wilson, Tom
Terblanche, Wilma
author_facet Wilson, Tom
Terblanche, Wilma
author_sort Wilson, Tom
collection PubMed
description INTRODUCTION: The population of Australia at the very highest ages is growing rapidly, like that of many countries. But official population estimates at these ages are of lower quality than those at younger ages, a problem shared by many countries which base their population estimates on census counts. This has implications for many uses of the data, especially rates for which the estimates provide denominators. OBJECTIVE: The aims of this paper are to (1) present new population estimates of Australia’s centenarian population (those aged 100 years and above) for 1981 to 2016 which are better quality than official statistics, and (2) illustrate the utility of such estimates as rate denominators by calculating centenarian death rates. METHODS: Population estimates at the highest ages were prepared using a combination of the Extinct Cohort method and a modified Survivor Ratio method. The key modifications of the latter involve projecting and smoothing Survivor Ratios within an iterative set of calculations. Death rates were calculated as standard occurrence/exposure rates. Input data of deaths and official Estimated Resident Populations were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. RESULTS: We show that Australia’s centenarian population grew from about 500 in 1981 to just over 3,900 by 2016, equivalent to an annual average growth rate of 5.9%. Centenarian death rates for the 1981-2016 period remained roughly steady, averaging 0.44 for females and 0.51 for males. CONCLUSION: Our modified approach adds a degree of stability to the Survivor Ratio method and yields high-quality population estimates and death rates at advanced ages. It could easily be implemented by national statistical offices.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-7299471
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2018
publisher Swansea University
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-72994712020-09-14 New estimates of Australia’s centenarian population Wilson, Tom Terblanche, Wilma Int J Popul Data Sci Population Data Science INTRODUCTION: The population of Australia at the very highest ages is growing rapidly, like that of many countries. But official population estimates at these ages are of lower quality than those at younger ages, a problem shared by many countries which base their population estimates on census counts. This has implications for many uses of the data, especially rates for which the estimates provide denominators. OBJECTIVE: The aims of this paper are to (1) present new population estimates of Australia’s centenarian population (those aged 100 years and above) for 1981 to 2016 which are better quality than official statistics, and (2) illustrate the utility of such estimates as rate denominators by calculating centenarian death rates. METHODS: Population estimates at the highest ages were prepared using a combination of the Extinct Cohort method and a modified Survivor Ratio method. The key modifications of the latter involve projecting and smoothing Survivor Ratios within an iterative set of calculations. Death rates were calculated as standard occurrence/exposure rates. Input data of deaths and official Estimated Resident Populations were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. RESULTS: We show that Australia’s centenarian population grew from about 500 in 1981 to just over 3,900 by 2016, equivalent to an annual average growth rate of 5.9%. Centenarian death rates for the 1981-2016 period remained roughly steady, averaging 0.44 for females and 0.51 for males. CONCLUSION: Our modified approach adds a degree of stability to the Survivor Ratio method and yields high-quality population estimates and death rates at advanced ages. It could easily be implemented by national statistical offices. Swansea University 2018-06-20 /pmc/articles/PMC7299471/ /pubmed/32935007 http://dx.doi.org/10.23889/ijpds.v3i1.447 Text en https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
spellingShingle Population Data Science
Wilson, Tom
Terblanche, Wilma
New estimates of Australia’s centenarian population
title New estimates of Australia’s centenarian population
title_full New estimates of Australia’s centenarian population
title_fullStr New estimates of Australia’s centenarian population
title_full_unstemmed New estimates of Australia’s centenarian population
title_short New estimates of Australia’s centenarian population
title_sort new estimates of australia’s centenarian population
topic Population Data Science
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7299471/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32935007
http://dx.doi.org/10.23889/ijpds.v3i1.447
work_keys_str_mv AT wilsontom newestimatesofaustraliascentenarianpopulation
AT terblanchewilma newestimatesofaustraliascentenarianpopulation