Constraining Atmospheric Selenium Emissions Using Observations, Global Modeling, and Bayesian Inference

[Image: see text] Selenium (Se) is an essential dietary element for humans and animals, and the atmosphere is an important source of Se to soils. However, estimates of global atmospheric Se fluxes are highly uncertain. To constrain these uncertainties, we use a global model of atmospheric Se cycling and a database of more than 600 sites where Se in aerosol has been measured. Applying Bayesian inference techniques, we determine the probability distributions of global Se emissions from the four major sources: anthropogenic activities, volcanoes, marine biosphere, and terrestrial biosphere. Between 29 and 36 Gg of Se are emitted to the atmosphere every year, doubling previous estimates of emissions. Using emission parameters optimized by aerosol network measurements, our model shows good agreement with the aerosol Se observations (R(2) = 0.66), as well as with independent aerosol (0.59) and wet deposition measurements (0.57). Both model and measurements show a decline in Se over North America in the last two decades because of changes in technology and energy policy. Our results highlight the role of the ocean as a net atmospheric Se sink, with around 7 Gg yr(–1) of Se transferred from land through the atmosphere. The constrained Se emissions represent a substantial step forward in understanding the global Se cycle.