Evaluation and prediction of COVID-19 in India: A case study of worst hit states

In this manuscript, system modeling and identification techniques are applied in developing a prognostic yet deterministic model to forecast the spread of COVID-19 in India. The model is verified with the historical data and a forecast of the spread for 30-days is presented in the 10 most affected s...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Rafiq, Danish, Suhail, Suhail Ahmad, Bazaz, Mohammad Abid
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Ltd. 2020
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7303618/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32834587
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110014
Descripción
Sumario:In this manuscript, system modeling and identification techniques are applied in developing a prognostic yet deterministic model to forecast the spread of COVID-19 in India. The model is verified with the historical data and a forecast of the spread for 30-days is presented in the 10 most affected states of India. The major results suggest that our model can very well capture the disease variations with high accuracy. The results also show a steep rise in the total cumulative cases and deaths in the coming weeks.

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