Evaluation and prediction of COVID-19 in India: A case study of worst hit states

In this manuscript, system modeling and identification techniques are applied in developing a prognostic yet deterministic model to forecast the spread of COVID-19 in India. The model is verified with the historical data and a forecast of the spread for 30-days is presented in the 10 most affected s...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Rafiq, Danish, Suhail, Suhail Ahmad, Bazaz, Mohammad Abid
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Ltd. 2020
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7303618/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32834587
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110014
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author Rafiq, Danish
Suhail, Suhail Ahmad
Bazaz, Mohammad Abid
author_facet Rafiq, Danish
Suhail, Suhail Ahmad
Bazaz, Mohammad Abid
author_sort Rafiq, Danish
collection PubMed
description In this manuscript, system modeling and identification techniques are applied in developing a prognostic yet deterministic model to forecast the spread of COVID-19 in India. The model is verified with the historical data and a forecast of the spread for 30-days is presented in the 10 most affected states of India. The major results suggest that our model can very well capture the disease variations with high accuracy. The results also show a steep rise in the total cumulative cases and deaths in the coming weeks.
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spelling pubmed-73036182020-06-19 Evaluation and prediction of COVID-19 in India: A case study of worst hit states Rafiq, Danish Suhail, Suhail Ahmad Bazaz, Mohammad Abid Chaos Solitons Fractals Article In this manuscript, system modeling and identification techniques are applied in developing a prognostic yet deterministic model to forecast the spread of COVID-19 in India. The model is verified with the historical data and a forecast of the spread for 30-days is presented in the 10 most affected states of India. The major results suggest that our model can very well capture the disease variations with high accuracy. The results also show a steep rise in the total cumulative cases and deaths in the coming weeks. Elsevier Ltd. 2020-10 2020-06-19 /pmc/articles/PMC7303618/ /pubmed/32834587 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110014 Text en © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Rafiq, Danish
Suhail, Suhail Ahmad
Bazaz, Mohammad Abid
Evaluation and prediction of COVID-19 in India: A case study of worst hit states
title Evaluation and prediction of COVID-19 in India: A case study of worst hit states
title_full Evaluation and prediction of COVID-19 in India: A case study of worst hit states
title_fullStr Evaluation and prediction of COVID-19 in India: A case study of worst hit states
title_full_unstemmed Evaluation and prediction of COVID-19 in India: A case study of worst hit states
title_short Evaluation and prediction of COVID-19 in India: A case study of worst hit states
title_sort evaluation and prediction of covid-19 in india: a case study of worst hit states
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7303618/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32834587
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110014
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