Trends of incidence and prognosis of gastric neuroendocrine neoplasms: a study based on SEER and our multicenter research

BACKGROUND: To investigate the recent epidemiological trends of gastric neuroendocrine neoplasms (GNENs) and establish a new tool to estimate the prognosis of gastric neuroendocrine carcinoma (GNEC) and gastric neuroendocrine tumor (GNET). METHODS: Nomograms were established based on a retrospective study on patients diagnosed with GNENs from 1975 to 2016 in Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database. External validation was performed among 246 GNENs patients in Jiangsu province to verify the discrimination and calibration of the nomograms. RESULTS: The age-adjusted incidence of GNENs has increased from 0.309 to 6.149 per 1,000,000 persons in the past 4 decades. Multivariate analysis indicated independent prognostic factors for both GNEC and GNET including age, distant metastasis and surgical intervention (P < 0.05). In addition, T, N staging and grade were significantly associated with survival of GNEC, while size was a predictor for GNET (P < 0.05). The C-indexes of the nomograms were 0.840 for GNEC and 0.718 for GNET, which were higher than those of the 8th AJCC staging system (0.773 and 0.599). Excellent discrimination was observed in the validation cohorts (C-index of nomogram vs AJCC staging for GNEC: 0.743 vs 0.714; GNET: 0.945 vs 0.927). Survival rates predicted by nomograms were close to the actual survival rates in the calibration plots in both training and validation sets. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of the GNENs is increasing steadily in the past 40 years. We established more excellent nomograms to predict the prognosis of GNENs than traditional staging system, helping clinicians to make tailored decisions. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s10120-020-01046-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.