Size and timescale of epidemics in the SIR framework

The most important features to assess the severity of an epidemic are its size and its timescale. We discuss these features in a systematic way in the context of SIR and SIR-type models. We investigate in detail how the size and timescale of the epidemic can be changed by acting on the parameters ch...

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Autores principales: Cadoni, Mariano, Gaeta, Giuseppe
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier B.V. 2020
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7305940/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32834247
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physd.2020.132626
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author Cadoni, Mariano
Gaeta, Giuseppe
author_facet Cadoni, Mariano
Gaeta, Giuseppe
author_sort Cadoni, Mariano
collection PubMed
description The most important features to assess the severity of an epidemic are its size and its timescale. We discuss these features in a systematic way in the context of SIR and SIR-type models. We investigate in detail how the size and timescale of the epidemic can be changed by acting on the parameters characterizing the model. Using these results and having as guideline the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy, we compare the efficiency of different containment strategies for contrasting an epidemic diffusion such as social distancing, lockdown, tracing, early detection and isolation.
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spelling pubmed-73059402020-06-22 Size and timescale of epidemics in the SIR framework Cadoni, Mariano Gaeta, Giuseppe Physica D Article The most important features to assess the severity of an epidemic are its size and its timescale. We discuss these features in a systematic way in the context of SIR and SIR-type models. We investigate in detail how the size and timescale of the epidemic can be changed by acting on the parameters characterizing the model. Using these results and having as guideline the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy, we compare the efficiency of different containment strategies for contrasting an epidemic diffusion such as social distancing, lockdown, tracing, early detection and isolation. Elsevier B.V. 2020-10 2020-06-20 /pmc/articles/PMC7305940/ /pubmed/32834247 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physd.2020.132626 Text en © 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Cadoni, Mariano
Gaeta, Giuseppe
Size and timescale of epidemics in the SIR framework
title Size and timescale of epidemics in the SIR framework
title_full Size and timescale of epidemics in the SIR framework
title_fullStr Size and timescale of epidemics in the SIR framework
title_full_unstemmed Size and timescale of epidemics in the SIR framework
title_short Size and timescale of epidemics in the SIR framework
title_sort size and timescale of epidemics in the sir framework
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7305940/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32834247
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physd.2020.132626
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