Longitudinal analysis reveals transition barriers between dominant ecological states in the gut microbiome

The Pioneer 100 Wellness Project involved quantitatively profiling 108 participants’ molecular physiology over time, including genomes, gut microbiomes, blood metabolomes, blood proteomes, clinical chemistries, and data from wearable devices. Here, we present a longitudinal analysis focused specifically around the Pioneer 100 gut microbiomes. We distinguished a subpopulation of individuals with reduced gut diversity, elevated relative abundance of the genus Prevotella, and reduced levels of the genus Bacteroides. We found that the relative abundances of Bacteroides and Prevotella were significantly correlated with certain serum metabolites, including omega-6 fatty acids. Primary dimensions in distance-based redundancy analysis of clinical chemistries explained 18.5% of the variance in bacterial community composition, and revealed a Bacteroides/Prevotella dichotomy aligned with inflammation and dietary markers. Finally, longitudinal analysis of gut microbiome dynamics within individuals showed that direct transitions between Bacteroides-dominated and Prevotella-dominated communities were rare, suggesting the presence of a barrier between these states. One implication is that interventions seeking to transition between Bacteroides- and Prevotella-dominated communities will need to identify permissible paths through ecological state-space that circumvent this apparent barrier.