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Climate change will affect global water availability through compounding changes in seasonal precipitation and evaporation
Both seasonal and annual mean precipitation and evaporation influence patterns of water availability impacting society and ecosystems. Existing global climate studies rarely consider such patterns from non-parametric statistical standpoint. Here, we employ a non-parametric analysis framework to anal...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7311549/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32576822 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16757-w |
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author | Konapala, Goutam Mishra, Ashok K. Wada, Yoshihide Mann, Michael E. |
author_facet | Konapala, Goutam Mishra, Ashok K. Wada, Yoshihide Mann, Michael E. |
author_sort | Konapala, Goutam |
collection | PubMed |
description | Both seasonal and annual mean precipitation and evaporation influence patterns of water availability impacting society and ecosystems. Existing global climate studies rarely consider such patterns from non-parametric statistical standpoint. Here, we employ a non-parametric analysis framework to analyze seasonal hydroclimatic regimes by classifying global land regions into nine regimes using late 20th century precipitation means and seasonality. These regimes are used to assess implications for water availability due to concomitant changes in mean and seasonal precipitation and evaporation changes using CMIP5 model future climate projections. Out of 9 regimes, 4 show increased precipitation variation, while 5 show decreased evaporation variation coupled with increasing mean precipitation and evaporation. Increases in projected seasonal precipitation variation in already highly variable precipitation regimes gives rise to a pattern of “seasonally variable regimes becoming more variable”. Regimes with low seasonality in precipitation, instead, experience increased wet season precipitation. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7311549 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-73115492020-06-26 Climate change will affect global water availability through compounding changes in seasonal precipitation and evaporation Konapala, Goutam Mishra, Ashok K. Wada, Yoshihide Mann, Michael E. Nat Commun Article Both seasonal and annual mean precipitation and evaporation influence patterns of water availability impacting society and ecosystems. Existing global climate studies rarely consider such patterns from non-parametric statistical standpoint. Here, we employ a non-parametric analysis framework to analyze seasonal hydroclimatic regimes by classifying global land regions into nine regimes using late 20th century precipitation means and seasonality. These regimes are used to assess implications for water availability due to concomitant changes in mean and seasonal precipitation and evaporation changes using CMIP5 model future climate projections. Out of 9 regimes, 4 show increased precipitation variation, while 5 show decreased evaporation variation coupled with increasing mean precipitation and evaporation. Increases in projected seasonal precipitation variation in already highly variable precipitation regimes gives rise to a pattern of “seasonally variable regimes becoming more variable”. Regimes with low seasonality in precipitation, instead, experience increased wet season precipitation. Nature Publishing Group UK 2020-06-23 /pmc/articles/PMC7311549/ /pubmed/32576822 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16757-w Text en © The Author(s) 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
spellingShingle | Article Konapala, Goutam Mishra, Ashok K. Wada, Yoshihide Mann, Michael E. Climate change will affect global water availability through compounding changes in seasonal precipitation and evaporation |
title | Climate change will affect global water availability through compounding changes in seasonal precipitation and evaporation |
title_full | Climate change will affect global water availability through compounding changes in seasonal precipitation and evaporation |
title_fullStr | Climate change will affect global water availability through compounding changes in seasonal precipitation and evaporation |
title_full_unstemmed | Climate change will affect global water availability through compounding changes in seasonal precipitation and evaporation |
title_short | Climate change will affect global water availability through compounding changes in seasonal precipitation and evaporation |
title_sort | climate change will affect global water availability through compounding changes in seasonal precipitation and evaporation |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7311549/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32576822 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-16757-w |
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