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A Preliminary Investigation on the Statistical Correlations between SARS-CoV-2 Spread and Local Meteorology

The statistical correlation between meteorological parameters and the spread of Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) was investigated in five provinces of Italy selected according to the number of infected individuals and the different trends of infection in the early stages of the epidemic: Bergamo...

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Autores principales: Passerini, Giorgio, Mancinelli, Enrico, Morichetti, Mauro, Virgili, Simone, Rizza, Umberto
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7312788/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32517160
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17114051
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author Passerini, Giorgio
Mancinelli, Enrico
Morichetti, Mauro
Virgili, Simone
Rizza, Umberto
author_facet Passerini, Giorgio
Mancinelli, Enrico
Morichetti, Mauro
Virgili, Simone
Rizza, Umberto
author_sort Passerini, Giorgio
collection PubMed
description The statistical correlation between meteorological parameters and the spread of Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) was investigated in five provinces of Italy selected according to the number of infected individuals and the different trends of infection in the early stages of the epidemic: Bergamo and Brescia showed some of the highest trends of infections while nearby Cremona and Mantova, showed lower trends. Pesaro–Urbino province was included for further investigation as it was comparably affected by the epidemic despite being the area far from the Po valley. Moving means of the variables were considered to take into account the variability of incubation periods and uncertainties in the epidemiological data. The same analyzes were performed normalizing the number of new daily cases based on the number of checks performed. For each province, the moving mean of adjusted and unadjusted new daily cases were independently plotted versus each meteorological parameter, and linear regressions were determined in the period from 29th of February 2020 to 29th of March 2020. Strong positive correlations were observed between new cases and temperatures within three provinces representing 86.5% of the contagions. Strong negative correlations were observed between the moving means of new cases and relative humidity values for four provinces and more than 90% of the contagions.
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spelling pubmed-73127882020-06-26 A Preliminary Investigation on the Statistical Correlations between SARS-CoV-2 Spread and Local Meteorology Passerini, Giorgio Mancinelli, Enrico Morichetti, Mauro Virgili, Simone Rizza, Umberto Int J Environ Res Public Health Article The statistical correlation between meteorological parameters and the spread of Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) was investigated in five provinces of Italy selected according to the number of infected individuals and the different trends of infection in the early stages of the epidemic: Bergamo and Brescia showed some of the highest trends of infections while nearby Cremona and Mantova, showed lower trends. Pesaro–Urbino province was included for further investigation as it was comparably affected by the epidemic despite being the area far from the Po valley. Moving means of the variables were considered to take into account the variability of incubation periods and uncertainties in the epidemiological data. The same analyzes were performed normalizing the number of new daily cases based on the number of checks performed. For each province, the moving mean of adjusted and unadjusted new daily cases were independently plotted versus each meteorological parameter, and linear regressions were determined in the period from 29th of February 2020 to 29th of March 2020. Strong positive correlations were observed between new cases and temperatures within three provinces representing 86.5% of the contagions. Strong negative correlations were observed between the moving means of new cases and relative humidity values for four provinces and more than 90% of the contagions. MDPI 2020-06-05 2020-06 /pmc/articles/PMC7312788/ /pubmed/32517160 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17114051 Text en © 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Passerini, Giorgio
Mancinelli, Enrico
Morichetti, Mauro
Virgili, Simone
Rizza, Umberto
A Preliminary Investigation on the Statistical Correlations between SARS-CoV-2 Spread and Local Meteorology
title A Preliminary Investigation on the Statistical Correlations between SARS-CoV-2 Spread and Local Meteorology
title_full A Preliminary Investigation on the Statistical Correlations between SARS-CoV-2 Spread and Local Meteorology
title_fullStr A Preliminary Investigation on the Statistical Correlations between SARS-CoV-2 Spread and Local Meteorology
title_full_unstemmed A Preliminary Investigation on the Statistical Correlations between SARS-CoV-2 Spread and Local Meteorology
title_short A Preliminary Investigation on the Statistical Correlations between SARS-CoV-2 Spread and Local Meteorology
title_sort preliminary investigation on the statistical correlations between sars-cov-2 spread and local meteorology
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7312788/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32517160
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17114051
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