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Transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: effects of lockdown and medical resources

Due to the strong infectivity of COVID-19, it spread all over the world in about three months and thus has been studied from different aspects including its source of infection, pathological characteristics, diagnostic technology and treatment. Yet, the influences of control strategies on the transm...

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Autores principales: Sun, Gui-Quan, Wang, Shi-Fu, Li, Ming-Tao, Li, Li, Zhang, Juan, Zhang, Wei, Jin, Zhen, Feng, Guo-Lin
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Netherlands 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7313654/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32836805
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11071-020-05770-9
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author Sun, Gui-Quan
Wang, Shi-Fu
Li, Ming-Tao
Li, Li
Zhang, Juan
Zhang, Wei
Jin, Zhen
Feng, Guo-Lin
author_facet Sun, Gui-Quan
Wang, Shi-Fu
Li, Ming-Tao
Li, Li
Zhang, Juan
Zhang, Wei
Jin, Zhen
Feng, Guo-Lin
author_sort Sun, Gui-Quan
collection PubMed
description Due to the strong infectivity of COVID-19, it spread all over the world in about three months and thus has been studied from different aspects including its source of infection, pathological characteristics, diagnostic technology and treatment. Yet, the influences of control strategies on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 are far from being well understood. In order to reveal the mechanisms of disease spread, we present dynamical models to show the propagation of COVID-19 in Wuhan. Based on mathematical analysis and data analysis, we systematically explore the effects of lockdown and medical resources on the COVID-19 transmission in Wuhan. It is found that the later lockdown is adopted by Wuhan, the fewer people will be infected in Wuhan, and nevertheless it will have an impact on other cities in China and even the world. Moreover, the richer the medical resources, the higher the peak of new infection, but the smaller the final scale. These findings well indicate that the control measures taken by the Chinese government are correct and timely.
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spelling pubmed-73136542020-06-24 Transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: effects of lockdown and medical resources Sun, Gui-Quan Wang, Shi-Fu Li, Ming-Tao Li, Li Zhang, Juan Zhang, Wei Jin, Zhen Feng, Guo-Lin Nonlinear Dyn Original Paper Due to the strong infectivity of COVID-19, it spread all over the world in about three months and thus has been studied from different aspects including its source of infection, pathological characteristics, diagnostic technology and treatment. Yet, the influences of control strategies on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 are far from being well understood. In order to reveal the mechanisms of disease spread, we present dynamical models to show the propagation of COVID-19 in Wuhan. Based on mathematical analysis and data analysis, we systematically explore the effects of lockdown and medical resources on the COVID-19 transmission in Wuhan. It is found that the later lockdown is adopted by Wuhan, the fewer people will be infected in Wuhan, and nevertheless it will have an impact on other cities in China and even the world. Moreover, the richer the medical resources, the higher the peak of new infection, but the smaller the final scale. These findings well indicate that the control measures taken by the Chinese government are correct and timely. Springer Netherlands 2020-06-24 2020 /pmc/articles/PMC7313654/ /pubmed/32836805 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11071-020-05770-9 Text en © Springer Nature B.V. 2020 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Original Paper
Sun, Gui-Quan
Wang, Shi-Fu
Li, Ming-Tao
Li, Li
Zhang, Juan
Zhang, Wei
Jin, Zhen
Feng, Guo-Lin
Transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: effects of lockdown and medical resources
title Transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: effects of lockdown and medical resources
title_full Transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: effects of lockdown and medical resources
title_fullStr Transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: effects of lockdown and medical resources
title_full_unstemmed Transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: effects of lockdown and medical resources
title_short Transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: effects of lockdown and medical resources
title_sort transmission dynamics of covid-19 in wuhan, china: effects of lockdown and medical resources
topic Original Paper
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7313654/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32836805
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11071-020-05770-9
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