Research on COVID-19 based on ARIMA model(Δ)—Taking Hubei, China as an example to see the epidemic in Italy

COVID-19 has spread throughout the world; various forecast models have been used to predict the development of the pandemic. The number of new cases from the outbreak to zero has gone through a complete cycle in Hubei, China, on lockdown over coronavirus. So, we created the time series ARIMA models...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Yang, Qiuying, Wang, Jie, Ma, Hongli, Wang, Xihao
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences. 2020
Materias:
Original Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7313887/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32624404
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jiph.2020.06.019
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author Yang, Qiuying
Wang, Jie
Ma, Hongli
Wang, Xihao
author_facet Yang, Qiuying
Wang, Jie
Ma, Hongli
Wang, Xihao
author_sort Yang, Qiuying
collection PubMed
description COVID-19 has spread throughout the world; various forecast models have been used to predict the development of the pandemic. The number of new cases from the outbreak to zero has gone through a complete cycle in Hubei, China, on lockdown over coronavirus. So, we created the time series ARIMA models for new cases and new deaths daily during this period. Moreover, these models have been used in Italy, which has the same population conditions and on lockdown as Hubei, in order to predict the epidemic in Italy in the next ten days and provide a theoretical basis for the development of pandemics in some countries in the future.
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spelling pubmed-73138872020-06-24 Research on COVID-19 based on ARIMA model(Δ)—Taking Hubei, China as an example to see the epidemic in Italy Yang, Qiuying Wang, Jie Ma, Hongli Wang, Xihao J Infect Public Health Original Article COVID-19 has spread throughout the world; various forecast models have been used to predict the development of the pandemic. The number of new cases from the outbreak to zero has gone through a complete cycle in Hubei, China, on lockdown over coronavirus. So, we created the time series ARIMA models for new cases and new deaths daily during this period. Moreover, these models have been used in Italy, which has the same population conditions and on lockdown as Hubei, in order to predict the epidemic in Italy in the next ten days and provide a theoretical basis for the development of pandemics in some countries in the future. The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences. 2020-10 2020-06-20 /pmc/articles/PMC7313887/ /pubmed/32624404 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jiph.2020.06.019 Text en © 2020 The Author(s) Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Original Article
Yang, Qiuying
Wang, Jie
Ma, Hongli
Wang, Xihao
Research on COVID-19 based on ARIMA model(Δ)—Taking Hubei, China as an example to see the epidemic in Italy
title Research on COVID-19 based on ARIMA model(Δ)—Taking Hubei, China as an example to see the epidemic in Italy
title_full Research on COVID-19 based on ARIMA model(Δ)—Taking Hubei, China as an example to see the epidemic in Italy
title_fullStr Research on COVID-19 based on ARIMA model(Δ)—Taking Hubei, China as an example to see the epidemic in Italy
title_full_unstemmed Research on COVID-19 based on ARIMA model(Δ)—Taking Hubei, China as an example to see the epidemic in Italy
title_short Research on COVID-19 based on ARIMA model(Δ)—Taking Hubei, China as an example to see the epidemic in Italy
title_sort research on covid-19 based on arima model(δ)—taking hubei, china as an example to see the epidemic in italy
topic Original Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7313887/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32624404
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jiph.2020.06.019
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