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Context for interpreting equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response from the CMIP6 Earth system models

For the current generation of earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the range of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS, a hypothetical value of global warming at equilibrium for a doubling of CO(2)) is 1.8°C to 5.6°C, the largest of any genera...

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Autores principales: Meehl, Gerald A., Senior, Catherine A., Eyring, Veronika, Flato, Gregory, Lamarque, Jean-Francois, Stouffer, Ronald J., Taylor, Karl E., Schlund, Manuel
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: American Association for the Advancement of Science 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7314520/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32637602
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aba1981
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author Meehl, Gerald A.
Senior, Catherine A.
Eyring, Veronika
Flato, Gregory
Lamarque, Jean-Francois
Stouffer, Ronald J.
Taylor, Karl E.
Schlund, Manuel
author_facet Meehl, Gerald A.
Senior, Catherine A.
Eyring, Veronika
Flato, Gregory
Lamarque, Jean-Francois
Stouffer, Ronald J.
Taylor, Karl E.
Schlund, Manuel
author_sort Meehl, Gerald A.
collection PubMed
description For the current generation of earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the range of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS, a hypothetical value of global warming at equilibrium for a doubling of CO(2)) is 1.8°C to 5.6°C, the largest of any generation of models dating to the 1990s. Meanwhile, the range of transient climate response (TCR, the surface temperature warming around the time of CO(2) doubling in a 1% per year CO(2) increase simulation) for the CMIP6 models of 1.7°C (1.3°C to 3.0°C) is only slightly larger than for the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Here we review and synthesize the latest developments in ECS and TCR values in CMIP, compile possible reasons for the current values as supplied by the modeling groups, and highlight future directions. Cloud feedbacks and cloud-aerosol interactions are the most likely contributors to the high values and increased range of ECS in CMIP6.
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spelling pubmed-73145202020-07-06 Context for interpreting equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response from the CMIP6 Earth system models Meehl, Gerald A. Senior, Catherine A. Eyring, Veronika Flato, Gregory Lamarque, Jean-Francois Stouffer, Ronald J. Taylor, Karl E. Schlund, Manuel Sci Adv Reviews For the current generation of earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the range of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS, a hypothetical value of global warming at equilibrium for a doubling of CO(2)) is 1.8°C to 5.6°C, the largest of any generation of models dating to the 1990s. Meanwhile, the range of transient climate response (TCR, the surface temperature warming around the time of CO(2) doubling in a 1% per year CO(2) increase simulation) for the CMIP6 models of 1.7°C (1.3°C to 3.0°C) is only slightly larger than for the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Here we review and synthesize the latest developments in ECS and TCR values in CMIP, compile possible reasons for the current values as supplied by the modeling groups, and highlight future directions. Cloud feedbacks and cloud-aerosol interactions are the most likely contributors to the high values and increased range of ECS in CMIP6. American Association for the Advancement of Science 2020-06-24 /pmc/articles/PMC7314520/ /pubmed/32637602 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aba1981 Text en Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC). http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) , which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Reviews
Meehl, Gerald A.
Senior, Catherine A.
Eyring, Veronika
Flato, Gregory
Lamarque, Jean-Francois
Stouffer, Ronald J.
Taylor, Karl E.
Schlund, Manuel
Context for interpreting equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response from the CMIP6 Earth system models
title Context for interpreting equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response from the CMIP6 Earth system models
title_full Context for interpreting equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response from the CMIP6 Earth system models
title_fullStr Context for interpreting equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response from the CMIP6 Earth system models
title_full_unstemmed Context for interpreting equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response from the CMIP6 Earth system models
title_short Context for interpreting equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response from the CMIP6 Earth system models
title_sort context for interpreting equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response from the cmip6 earth system models
topic Reviews
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7314520/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32637602
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aba1981
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