Cargando…
Context for interpreting equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response from the CMIP6 Earth system models
For the current generation of earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the range of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS, a hypothetical value of global warming at equilibrium for a doubling of CO(2)) is 1.8°C to 5.6°C, the largest of any genera...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
American Association for the Advancement of Science
2020
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7314520/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32637602 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aba1981 |
_version_ | 1783550076891693056 |
---|---|
author | Meehl, Gerald A. Senior, Catherine A. Eyring, Veronika Flato, Gregory Lamarque, Jean-Francois Stouffer, Ronald J. Taylor, Karl E. Schlund, Manuel |
author_facet | Meehl, Gerald A. Senior, Catherine A. Eyring, Veronika Flato, Gregory Lamarque, Jean-Francois Stouffer, Ronald J. Taylor, Karl E. Schlund, Manuel |
author_sort | Meehl, Gerald A. |
collection | PubMed |
description | For the current generation of earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the range of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS, a hypothetical value of global warming at equilibrium for a doubling of CO(2)) is 1.8°C to 5.6°C, the largest of any generation of models dating to the 1990s. Meanwhile, the range of transient climate response (TCR, the surface temperature warming around the time of CO(2) doubling in a 1% per year CO(2) increase simulation) for the CMIP6 models of 1.7°C (1.3°C to 3.0°C) is only slightly larger than for the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Here we review and synthesize the latest developments in ECS and TCR values in CMIP, compile possible reasons for the current values as supplied by the modeling groups, and highlight future directions. Cloud feedbacks and cloud-aerosol interactions are the most likely contributors to the high values and increased range of ECS in CMIP6. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7314520 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | American Association for the Advancement of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-73145202020-07-06 Context for interpreting equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response from the CMIP6 Earth system models Meehl, Gerald A. Senior, Catherine A. Eyring, Veronika Flato, Gregory Lamarque, Jean-Francois Stouffer, Ronald J. Taylor, Karl E. Schlund, Manuel Sci Adv Reviews For the current generation of earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the range of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS, a hypothetical value of global warming at equilibrium for a doubling of CO(2)) is 1.8°C to 5.6°C, the largest of any generation of models dating to the 1990s. Meanwhile, the range of transient climate response (TCR, the surface temperature warming around the time of CO(2) doubling in a 1% per year CO(2) increase simulation) for the CMIP6 models of 1.7°C (1.3°C to 3.0°C) is only slightly larger than for the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Here we review and synthesize the latest developments in ECS and TCR values in CMIP, compile possible reasons for the current values as supplied by the modeling groups, and highlight future directions. Cloud feedbacks and cloud-aerosol interactions are the most likely contributors to the high values and increased range of ECS in CMIP6. American Association for the Advancement of Science 2020-06-24 /pmc/articles/PMC7314520/ /pubmed/32637602 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aba1981 Text en Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC). http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) , which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited. |
spellingShingle | Reviews Meehl, Gerald A. Senior, Catherine A. Eyring, Veronika Flato, Gregory Lamarque, Jean-Francois Stouffer, Ronald J. Taylor, Karl E. Schlund, Manuel Context for interpreting equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response from the CMIP6 Earth system models |
title | Context for interpreting equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response from the CMIP6 Earth system models |
title_full | Context for interpreting equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response from the CMIP6 Earth system models |
title_fullStr | Context for interpreting equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response from the CMIP6 Earth system models |
title_full_unstemmed | Context for interpreting equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response from the CMIP6 Earth system models |
title_short | Context for interpreting equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response from the CMIP6 Earth system models |
title_sort | context for interpreting equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response from the cmip6 earth system models |
topic | Reviews |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7314520/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32637602 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aba1981 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT meehlgeralda contextforinterpretingequilibriumclimatesensitivityandtransientclimateresponsefromthecmip6earthsystemmodels AT seniorcatherinea contextforinterpretingequilibriumclimatesensitivityandtransientclimateresponsefromthecmip6earthsystemmodels AT eyringveronika contextforinterpretingequilibriumclimatesensitivityandtransientclimateresponsefromthecmip6earthsystemmodels AT flatogregory contextforinterpretingequilibriumclimatesensitivityandtransientclimateresponsefromthecmip6earthsystemmodels AT lamarquejeanfrancois contextforinterpretingequilibriumclimatesensitivityandtransientclimateresponsefromthecmip6earthsystemmodels AT stoufferronaldj contextforinterpretingequilibriumclimatesensitivityandtransientclimateresponsefromthecmip6earthsystemmodels AT taylorkarle contextforinterpretingequilibriumclimatesensitivityandtransientclimateresponsefromthecmip6earthsystemmodels AT schlundmanuel contextforinterpretingequilibriumclimatesensitivityandtransientclimateresponsefromthecmip6earthsystemmodels |