Causal Factors of Anxiety and Depression in College Students: Longitudinal Ecological Momentary Assessment and Causal Analysis Using Peter and Clark Momentary Conditional Independence

BACKGROUND: Across college campuses, the prevalence of clinically relevant depression or anxiety is affecting more than 27% of the college population at some point between entry to college and graduation. Stress and self-esteem have both been hypothesized to contribute to depression and anxiety levels. Although contemporaneous relationships between these variables have been well-defined, the causal relationship between these mental health factors is not well understood, as frequent sampling can be invasive, and many of the current causal techniques are not well suited to investigate correlated variables. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to characterize the causal and contemporaneous networks between these critical mental health factors in a cohort of first-year college students and then determine if observed results replicate in a second, distinct cohort. METHODS: Ecological momentary assessments of depression, anxiety, stress, and self-esteem were obtained weekly from two cohorts of first-year college students for 40 weeks (1 academic year). We used the Peter and Clark Momentary Conditional Independence algorithm to identify the contemporaneous (t) and causal (t-1) network structures between these mental health metrics. RESULTS: All reported results are significant at P<.001 unless otherwise stated. Depression was causally influenced by self-esteem (t-1 r(p), cohort 1 [C1]=–0.082, cohort 2 [C2]=–0.095) and itself (t-1 r(p), C1=0.388, C2=0.382) in both cohorts. Anxiety was causally influenced by stress (t-1 r(p), C1=0.095, C2=0.104), self-esteem (t-1 r(p), C1=–0.067, C2=–0.064, P=.002), and itself (t-1 r(p), of C1=0.293, C2=0.339) in both cohorts. A causal link between anxiety and depression was observed in the first cohort (t-1 r(p), C1=0.109) and only observed in the second cohort with a more liberal threshold (t-1 r(p), C2=0.044, P=.03). Self-esteem was only causally influenced by itself (t-1 r(p), C1=0.389, C2=0.393). Stress was only causally influenced by itself (t-1 r(p), C1=0.248, C2=0.273). Anxiety had positive contemporaneous links to depression (t r(p), C1=0.462, C2=0.444) and stress (t r(p), C1=0.354, C2=0.358). Self-esteem had negative contemporaneous links to each of the other three mental health metrics, with the strongest negative relationship being stress (t r(p), C1=–0.334, C2=–0.340), followed by depression (t r(p), C1=–0.302, C2=–0.274) and anxiety (t r(p), C1=–0.256, C2=–0.208). Depression had positive contemporaneous links to anxiety (previously mentioned) and stress (t r(p), C1=0.250, C2=0.231). CONCLUSIONS: This paper is an initial attempt to describe the contemporaneous and causal relationships among these four mental health metrics in college students. We replicated previous research identifying concurrent relationships between these variables and extended them by identifying causal links among these metrics. These results provide support for the vulnerability model of depression and anxiety. Understanding how causal factors impact the evolution of these mental states over time may provide key information for targeted treatment or, perhaps more importantly, preventative interventions for individuals at risk for depression and anxiety.