A game-theoretic model of Monkeypox to assess vaccination strategies

Monkeypox (MPX) is a zoonotic disease similar to smallpox. Its fatality rate is about 11% and it is endemic to the Central and West African countries. In this paper, we analyze a compartmental model of MPX dynamics. Our goal is to see whether MPX can be controlled and eradicated by voluntary vaccina...

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Autores principales: Bankuru, Sri Vibhaav, Kossol, Samuel, Hou, William, Mahmoudi, Parsa, Rychtář, Jan, Taylor, Dewey
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: PeerJ Inc. 2020
Materias:
Mathematical Biology
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7316080/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32607280
http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.9272
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author Bankuru, Sri Vibhaav
Kossol, Samuel
Hou, William
Mahmoudi, Parsa
Rychtář, Jan
Taylor, Dewey
author_facet Bankuru, Sri Vibhaav
Kossol, Samuel
Hou, William
Mahmoudi, Parsa
Rychtář, Jan
Taylor, Dewey
author_sort Bankuru, Sri Vibhaav
collection PubMed
description Monkeypox (MPX) is a zoonotic disease similar to smallpox. Its fatality rate is about 11% and it is endemic to the Central and West African countries. In this paper, we analyze a compartmental model of MPX dynamics. Our goal is to see whether MPX can be controlled and eradicated by voluntary vaccinations. We show that there are three equilibria—disease free, fully endemic and previously neglected semi-endemic (with disease existing only among humans). The existence of semi-endemic equilibrium has severe implications should the MPX virus mutate to increased viral fitness in humans. We find that MPX is controllable and can be eradicated in a semi-endemic equilibrium by vaccination. However, in a fully endemic equilibrium, MPX cannot be eradicated by vaccination alone.
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spelling pubmed-73160802020-06-29 A game-theoretic model of Monkeypox to assess vaccination strategies Bankuru, Sri Vibhaav Kossol, Samuel Hou, William Mahmoudi, Parsa Rychtář, Jan Taylor, Dewey PeerJ Mathematical Biology Monkeypox (MPX) is a zoonotic disease similar to smallpox. Its fatality rate is about 11% and it is endemic to the Central and West African countries. In this paper, we analyze a compartmental model of MPX dynamics. Our goal is to see whether MPX can be controlled and eradicated by voluntary vaccinations. We show that there are three equilibria—disease free, fully endemic and previously neglected semi-endemic (with disease existing only among humans). The existence of semi-endemic equilibrium has severe implications should the MPX virus mutate to increased viral fitness in humans. We find that MPX is controllable and can be eradicated in a semi-endemic equilibrium by vaccination. However, in a fully endemic equilibrium, MPX cannot be eradicated by vaccination alone. PeerJ Inc. 2020-06-22 /pmc/articles/PMC7316080/ /pubmed/32607280 http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.9272 Text en ©2020 Bankuru et al. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, reproduction and adaptation in any medium and for any purpose provided that it is properly attributed. For attribution, the original author(s), title, publication source (PeerJ) and either DOI or URL of the article must be cited.
spellingShingle Mathematical Biology
Bankuru, Sri Vibhaav
Kossol, Samuel
Hou, William
Mahmoudi, Parsa
Rychtář, Jan
Taylor, Dewey
A game-theoretic model of Monkeypox to assess vaccination strategies
title A game-theoretic model of Monkeypox to assess vaccination strategies
title_full A game-theoretic model of Monkeypox to assess vaccination strategies
title_fullStr A game-theoretic model of Monkeypox to assess vaccination strategies
title_full_unstemmed A game-theoretic model of Monkeypox to assess vaccination strategies
title_short A game-theoretic model of Monkeypox to assess vaccination strategies
title_sort game-theoretic model of monkeypox to assess vaccination strategies
topic Mathematical Biology
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7316080/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32607280
http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.9272
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