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Assessing bias in demographic estimates from joint live and dead encounter models

Joint encounter (JE) models estimate demographic rates using live recapture and dead recovery data. The extent to which limited recapture or recovery data can hinder estimation in JE models is not completely understood. Yet limited data are common in ecological research. We designed a series of simu...

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Autores principales: Weegman, Mitch D., Wilson, Scott, Alisauskas, Ray T., Kellett, Dana K.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: PeerJ Inc. 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7319022/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32612891
http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.9382
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author Weegman, Mitch D.
Wilson, Scott
Alisauskas, Ray T.
Kellett, Dana K.
author_facet Weegman, Mitch D.
Wilson, Scott
Alisauskas, Ray T.
Kellett, Dana K.
author_sort Weegman, Mitch D.
collection PubMed
description Joint encounter (JE) models estimate demographic rates using live recapture and dead recovery data. The extent to which limited recapture or recovery data can hinder estimation in JE models is not completely understood. Yet limited data are common in ecological research. We designed a series of simulations using Bayesian multistate JE models that spanned a large range of potential recapture probabilities (0.01–0.90) and two reported mortality probabilities (0.10, 0.19). We calculated bias by comparing estimates against known probabilities of survival, fidelity and reported mortality. We explored whether sparse data (i.e., recapture probabilities <0.02) compromised inference about survival by comparing estimates from dead recovery (DR) and JE models using an 18-year data set from a migratory bird, the lesser snow goose (Anser caerulescens caerulescens). Our simulations showed that bias in probabilities of survival, fidelity and reported mortality was relatively low across a large range of recapture probabilities, except when recapture and reported mortality probabilities were both lowest. While bias in fidelity probability was similar across all recapture probabilities, the root mean square error declined substantially with increased recapture probabilities for reported mortality probabilities of 0.10 or 0.19, as expected. In our case study, annual survival probabilities for adult female snow geese were similar whether estimated with JE or DR models, but more precise from JE models than those from DR models. Thus, our simulated and empirical data suggest acceptably minimal bias in survival, fidelity or reported mortality probabilities estimated from JE models. Even a small amount of recapture information provided adequate structure for JE models, except when reported mortality probabilities were <0.10. Thus, practitioners with limited recapture data should not be discouraged from use of JE models. We recommend that ecologists incorporate other data types as frequently as analytically possible, since precision of focal parameters is improved, and additional parameters of interest can be estimated.
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spelling pubmed-73190222020-06-30 Assessing bias in demographic estimates from joint live and dead encounter models Weegman, Mitch D. Wilson, Scott Alisauskas, Ray T. Kellett, Dana K. PeerJ Ecology Joint encounter (JE) models estimate demographic rates using live recapture and dead recovery data. The extent to which limited recapture or recovery data can hinder estimation in JE models is not completely understood. Yet limited data are common in ecological research. We designed a series of simulations using Bayesian multistate JE models that spanned a large range of potential recapture probabilities (0.01–0.90) and two reported mortality probabilities (0.10, 0.19). We calculated bias by comparing estimates against known probabilities of survival, fidelity and reported mortality. We explored whether sparse data (i.e., recapture probabilities <0.02) compromised inference about survival by comparing estimates from dead recovery (DR) and JE models using an 18-year data set from a migratory bird, the lesser snow goose (Anser caerulescens caerulescens). Our simulations showed that bias in probabilities of survival, fidelity and reported mortality was relatively low across a large range of recapture probabilities, except when recapture and reported mortality probabilities were both lowest. While bias in fidelity probability was similar across all recapture probabilities, the root mean square error declined substantially with increased recapture probabilities for reported mortality probabilities of 0.10 or 0.19, as expected. In our case study, annual survival probabilities for adult female snow geese were similar whether estimated with JE or DR models, but more precise from JE models than those from DR models. Thus, our simulated and empirical data suggest acceptably minimal bias in survival, fidelity or reported mortality probabilities estimated from JE models. Even a small amount of recapture information provided adequate structure for JE models, except when reported mortality probabilities were <0.10. Thus, practitioners with limited recapture data should not be discouraged from use of JE models. We recommend that ecologists incorporate other data types as frequently as analytically possible, since precision of focal parameters is improved, and additional parameters of interest can be estimated. PeerJ Inc. 2020-06-23 /pmc/articles/PMC7319022/ /pubmed/32612891 http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.9382 Text en © 2020 Weegman et al. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, reproduction and adaptation in any medium and for any purpose provided that it is properly attributed. For attribution, the original author(s), title, publication source (PeerJ) and either DOI or URL of the article must be cited.
spellingShingle Ecology
Weegman, Mitch D.
Wilson, Scott
Alisauskas, Ray T.
Kellett, Dana K.
Assessing bias in demographic estimates from joint live and dead encounter models
title Assessing bias in demographic estimates from joint live and dead encounter models
title_full Assessing bias in demographic estimates from joint live and dead encounter models
title_fullStr Assessing bias in demographic estimates from joint live and dead encounter models
title_full_unstemmed Assessing bias in demographic estimates from joint live and dead encounter models
title_short Assessing bias in demographic estimates from joint live and dead encounter models
title_sort assessing bias in demographic estimates from joint live and dead encounter models
topic Ecology
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7319022/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32612891
http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.9382
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