The macroeconomic impact of oil earnings uncertainty: New evidence from analyst forecasts

We develop measures of oil earnings uncertainty (OEU) using analyst forecasts drawn from a large firm-level dataset. OEU is related to future economic downturns, so some OEU measures may serve to forecast future downturns. An increase in OEU also has adverse effects on the US oil sector. The results...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Ma, Xiaohan, Samaniego, Roberto
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier B.V. 2020
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7320262/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32834201
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104832
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author Ma, Xiaohan
Samaniego, Roberto
author_facet Ma, Xiaohan
Samaniego, Roberto
author_sort Ma, Xiaohan
collection PubMed
description We develop measures of oil earnings uncertainty (OEU) using analyst forecasts drawn from a large firm-level dataset. OEU is related to future economic downturns, so some OEU measures may serve to forecast future downturns. An increase in OEU also has adverse effects on the US oil sector. The results are robust to conditioning on aggregate uncertainty. At the same time, OEU is related to increases in stock prices – unlike aggregate uncertainty, which has the opposite effect. OEU is thus an independent influence on both the oil industry and on economic aggregates.
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spelling pubmed-73202622020-06-29 The macroeconomic impact of oil earnings uncertainty: New evidence from analyst forecasts Ma, Xiaohan Samaniego, Roberto Energy Econ Article We develop measures of oil earnings uncertainty (OEU) using analyst forecasts drawn from a large firm-level dataset. OEU is related to future economic downturns, so some OEU measures may serve to forecast future downturns. An increase in OEU also has adverse effects on the US oil sector. The results are robust to conditioning on aggregate uncertainty. At the same time, OEU is related to increases in stock prices – unlike aggregate uncertainty, which has the opposite effect. OEU is thus an independent influence on both the oil industry and on economic aggregates. Elsevier B.V. 2020-08 2020-06-27 /pmc/articles/PMC7320262/ /pubmed/32834201 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104832 Text en © 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Ma, Xiaohan
Samaniego, Roberto
The macroeconomic impact of oil earnings uncertainty: New evidence from analyst forecasts
title The macroeconomic impact of oil earnings uncertainty: New evidence from analyst forecasts
title_full The macroeconomic impact of oil earnings uncertainty: New evidence from analyst forecasts
title_fullStr The macroeconomic impact of oil earnings uncertainty: New evidence from analyst forecasts
title_full_unstemmed The macroeconomic impact of oil earnings uncertainty: New evidence from analyst forecasts
title_short The macroeconomic impact of oil earnings uncertainty: New evidence from analyst forecasts
title_sort macroeconomic impact of oil earnings uncertainty: new evidence from analyst forecasts
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7320262/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32834201
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104832
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