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Exploring global food system shocks, scenarios and outcomes

Globalised food supply chains are increasingly susceptible to systemic risks, with natural, social and economic shocks in one region potentially leading to price spikes and supply changes experienced at the global scale. Projections commonly extrapolate from recent histories and adopt a ‘business as...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Hamilton, Hannah, Henry, Roslyn, Rounsevell, Mark, Moran, Dominic, Cossar, Frances, Allen, Kathleen, Boden, Lisa, Alexander, Peter
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Published by Elsevier Ltd. 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7320689/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32836328
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2020.102601
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author Hamilton, Hannah
Henry, Roslyn
Rounsevell, Mark
Moran, Dominic
Cossar, Frances
Allen, Kathleen
Boden, Lisa
Alexander, Peter
author_facet Hamilton, Hannah
Henry, Roslyn
Rounsevell, Mark
Moran, Dominic
Cossar, Frances
Allen, Kathleen
Boden, Lisa
Alexander, Peter
author_sort Hamilton, Hannah
collection PubMed
description Globalised food supply chains are increasingly susceptible to systemic risks, with natural, social and economic shocks in one region potentially leading to price spikes and supply changes experienced at the global scale. Projections commonly extrapolate from recent histories and adopt a ‘business as usual’ approach that risks failing to take account of shocks or unpredictable events that can have dramatic consequences for the status quo, as seen with the global Covid-19 pandemic. This study used an explorative stakeholder process and shock centred narratives to discuss the potential impact of a diversity of shocks, examining system characteristics and trends that may amplify their impact. Through the development of scenarios, stakeholders revealed concerns about the stability of the food system and the social, economic and environmental consequence of food related shocks. Increasing connectivity served as a mechanism to heighten volatility and vulnerability within all scenarios, with reliance on singular crops and technologies (i.e. low diversity) throughout systems highlighted as another potential source of vulnerability. The growing role of social media in shaping attitudes and behaviours towards food, and the increasing role of automation emerged as contemporary areas of concern, which have thus far been little explored within the literature.
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spelling pubmed-73206892020-06-29 Exploring global food system shocks, scenarios and outcomes Hamilton, Hannah Henry, Roslyn Rounsevell, Mark Moran, Dominic Cossar, Frances Allen, Kathleen Boden, Lisa Alexander, Peter Futures Article Globalised food supply chains are increasingly susceptible to systemic risks, with natural, social and economic shocks in one region potentially leading to price spikes and supply changes experienced at the global scale. Projections commonly extrapolate from recent histories and adopt a ‘business as usual’ approach that risks failing to take account of shocks or unpredictable events that can have dramatic consequences for the status quo, as seen with the global Covid-19 pandemic. This study used an explorative stakeholder process and shock centred narratives to discuss the potential impact of a diversity of shocks, examining system characteristics and trends that may amplify their impact. Through the development of scenarios, stakeholders revealed concerns about the stability of the food system and the social, economic and environmental consequence of food related shocks. Increasing connectivity served as a mechanism to heighten volatility and vulnerability within all scenarios, with reliance on singular crops and technologies (i.e. low diversity) throughout systems highlighted as another potential source of vulnerability. The growing role of social media in shaping attitudes and behaviours towards food, and the increasing role of automation emerged as contemporary areas of concern, which have thus far been little explored within the literature. Published by Elsevier Ltd. 2020-10 2020-06-27 /pmc/articles/PMC7320689/ /pubmed/32836328 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2020.102601 Text en © 2020 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Hamilton, Hannah
Henry, Roslyn
Rounsevell, Mark
Moran, Dominic
Cossar, Frances
Allen, Kathleen
Boden, Lisa
Alexander, Peter
Exploring global food system shocks, scenarios and outcomes
title Exploring global food system shocks, scenarios and outcomes
title_full Exploring global food system shocks, scenarios and outcomes
title_fullStr Exploring global food system shocks, scenarios and outcomes
title_full_unstemmed Exploring global food system shocks, scenarios and outcomes
title_short Exploring global food system shocks, scenarios and outcomes
title_sort exploring global food system shocks, scenarios and outcomes
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7320689/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32836328
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2020.102601
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