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Climatological, virological and sociological drivers of current and projected dengue fever outbreak dynamics in Sri Lanka

The largest ever Sri Lankan dengue outbreak of 2017 provides an opportunity for investigating the relative contributions of climatological, epidemiological and sociological drivers on the epidemic patterns of this clinically important vector-borne disease. To do so, we develop a climatologically dri...

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Autores principales: Wagner, Caroline E., Hooshyar, Milad, Baker, Rachel E., Yang, Wenchang, Arinaminpathy, Nimalan, Vecchi, Gabriel, Metcalf, C. Jessica E., Porporato, Amilcare, Grenfell, Bryan T.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Royal Society 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7328388/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32486949
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2020.0075
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author Wagner, Caroline E.
Hooshyar, Milad
Baker, Rachel E.
Yang, Wenchang
Arinaminpathy, Nimalan
Vecchi, Gabriel
Metcalf, C. Jessica E.
Porporato, Amilcare
Grenfell, Bryan T.
author_facet Wagner, Caroline E.
Hooshyar, Milad
Baker, Rachel E.
Yang, Wenchang
Arinaminpathy, Nimalan
Vecchi, Gabriel
Metcalf, C. Jessica E.
Porporato, Amilcare
Grenfell, Bryan T.
author_sort Wagner, Caroline E.
collection PubMed
description The largest ever Sri Lankan dengue outbreak of 2017 provides an opportunity for investigating the relative contributions of climatological, epidemiological and sociological drivers on the epidemic patterns of this clinically important vector-borne disease. To do so, we develop a climatologically driven disease transmission framework for dengue virus using spatially resolved temperature and precipitation data as well as the time-series susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. From this framework, we first demonstrate that the distinct climatological patterns encountered across the island play an important role in establishing the typical yearly temporal dynamics of dengue, but alone are unable to account for the epidemic case numbers observed in Sri Lanka during 2017. Using a simplified two-strain SIR model, we demonstrate that the re-introduction of a dengue virus serotype that had been largely absent from the island in previous years may have played an important role in driving the epidemic, and provide a discussion of the possible roles for extreme weather events and human mobility patterns on the outbreak dynamics. Lastly, we provide estimates for the future burden of dengue across Sri Lanka using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 climate projections. Critically, we demonstrate that climatological and serological factors can act synergistically to yield greater projected case numbers than would be expected from the presence of a single driver alone. Altogether, this work provides a holistic framework for teasing apart and analysing the various complex drivers of vector-borne disease outbreak dynamics.
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spelling pubmed-73283882020-07-02 Climatological, virological and sociological drivers of current and projected dengue fever outbreak dynamics in Sri Lanka Wagner, Caroline E. Hooshyar, Milad Baker, Rachel E. Yang, Wenchang Arinaminpathy, Nimalan Vecchi, Gabriel Metcalf, C. Jessica E. Porporato, Amilcare Grenfell, Bryan T. J R Soc Interface Life Sciences–Earth Science interface The largest ever Sri Lankan dengue outbreak of 2017 provides an opportunity for investigating the relative contributions of climatological, epidemiological and sociological drivers on the epidemic patterns of this clinically important vector-borne disease. To do so, we develop a climatologically driven disease transmission framework for dengue virus using spatially resolved temperature and precipitation data as well as the time-series susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. From this framework, we first demonstrate that the distinct climatological patterns encountered across the island play an important role in establishing the typical yearly temporal dynamics of dengue, but alone are unable to account for the epidemic case numbers observed in Sri Lanka during 2017. Using a simplified two-strain SIR model, we demonstrate that the re-introduction of a dengue virus serotype that had been largely absent from the island in previous years may have played an important role in driving the epidemic, and provide a discussion of the possible roles for extreme weather events and human mobility patterns on the outbreak dynamics. Lastly, we provide estimates for the future burden of dengue across Sri Lanka using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 climate projections. Critically, we demonstrate that climatological and serological factors can act synergistically to yield greater projected case numbers than would be expected from the presence of a single driver alone. Altogether, this work provides a holistic framework for teasing apart and analysing the various complex drivers of vector-borne disease outbreak dynamics. The Royal Society 2020-06 2020-06-03 /pmc/articles/PMC7328388/ /pubmed/32486949 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2020.0075 Text en © 2020 The Authors. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Life Sciences–Earth Science interface
Wagner, Caroline E.
Hooshyar, Milad
Baker, Rachel E.
Yang, Wenchang
Arinaminpathy, Nimalan
Vecchi, Gabriel
Metcalf, C. Jessica E.
Porporato, Amilcare
Grenfell, Bryan T.
Climatological, virological and sociological drivers of current and projected dengue fever outbreak dynamics in Sri Lanka
title Climatological, virological and sociological drivers of current and projected dengue fever outbreak dynamics in Sri Lanka
title_full Climatological, virological and sociological drivers of current and projected dengue fever outbreak dynamics in Sri Lanka
title_fullStr Climatological, virological and sociological drivers of current and projected dengue fever outbreak dynamics in Sri Lanka
title_full_unstemmed Climatological, virological and sociological drivers of current and projected dengue fever outbreak dynamics in Sri Lanka
title_short Climatological, virological and sociological drivers of current and projected dengue fever outbreak dynamics in Sri Lanka
title_sort climatological, virological and sociological drivers of current and projected dengue fever outbreak dynamics in sri lanka
topic Life Sciences–Earth Science interface
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7328388/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32486949
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2020.0075
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