From Malthusian Disequilibrium to the Post-Malthusian Era: The Evolution of the Preventive and Positive Checks in Germany, 1730–1870

This study draws on a new data set of vital rates and real wages to explore short-term and long-term behavior of the preventive and positive checks in a major economy of premodern mainland Europe. Four results stand out. First, the preventive check was fairly stable throughout the period 1730–1870; its magnitude of 0.2 to 0.35 was comparable with that of England, northern and central Italy, and Sweden. Second, the eighteenth century was characterized by Malthusian disequilibrium in that there was no long-term relationship between the crude death rate and the real wage, whereas the crude death rate’s instantaneous response to income changes was a substantial –0.4. Third, the short-term positive check may have weakened over the eighteenth century and largely disappeared in the 1810s. The diversification of food risk resulting from the spread of potato cultivation, market integration, and the development of the nonagricultural sectors are potential explanations of the demise and disappearance of the positive check. Fourth, between the 1810s and the 1860s, vital rates and the real wage were stationary, which is consistent with a post-Malthusian regime in which technological progress depended on population size. The 1810s marked the time when Germany transited from a Malthusian regime in disequilibrium to the post-Malthusian era. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s13524-020-00872-w) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.