Inflection point: The future of subcontracting in the petroleum industry

Oil prices have been in the downtrend since the recession of 2008. Since then, companies have struggled to survive as factors of production are being driven by external influences. International efforts to create a sustainable environment further intricates the supply and demand curve as countries develop policies and strategies to phase out fossil fuels. There has been a myriad of researches conducted by both public and private organisations that seem to agree and disagree on certain factors of a peak oil forecast. There is lack of research however, on finding common ground to determine the central tendencies if multiple predictions are accounted, which creates bias in decision making. The findings of this research provide a practical outlook for businesses and governments to better position their financial and policy decisions with regard to fossil fuels which could affect the lives of many. This research uses a novel prediction combination approach to determine an earliest-case peak oil occurrence through qualitative and quantitative methods for bias minimisation. The predictions are sourced from a balance of reputable private and public international agencies. The result interestingly finds commonality of reaching an earliest-case of peak oil in the year 2025 with feasible factors considered. The research discusses the inflection point forecast and financial risk mitigation recommendations for private entities and governments gathered from expert reports and articles in the field of oil supply and demand.