Sex-specific association of serum uric acid dynamics with the incidence of metabolic syndrome in a health check-up Chinese population: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE: Many studies have demonstrated that elevated serum uric acid (SUA) level is linked with metabolic syndrome (MetS). However, whether there is a sex difference in the association between SUA and MetS has not been determined. This study aimed to accurately explore the impact of SUA longitudinal changes on MetS by sex. DESIGN: A prospective cohort study. SETTING: The Health Check-up Centre of the Second Hospital affiliated with Dalian Medical University from 2010 to 2016. PARTICIPANTS: A health check-up cohort of 577 men and 1698 women aged 20–60 years who did not exhibit MetS or hyperuricaemia at baseline and underwent at least two physical examinations from 2010 to 2016. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Weight, height, blood pressure and blood biochemistry parameters, including SUA, were measured. MetS was defined according to the Joint Interim Statement criteria. METHODS: Based on longitudinal data, a linear mixed-effects model was constructed to explore the characteristics of SUA dynamic changes in males and females, and joint modelling of longitudinal and survival data was done to analyse the association between SUA dynamic changes and MetS occurrence. RESULTS: The natural logarithm of SUA (LNSUA) in females exhibited a gradually increasing trend, and its annual growth rate in females who developed MetS was greater than that of the non-MetS females. The longitudinal growth of SUA in females was a risk factor for the onset of MetS, and the estimated HR was 13.2580 (95% CI 1.9106 to 91.9957) for each 1-unit rise in LNSUA longitudinally. An association between the longitudinal growth of LNSUA and MetS was not found in males. CONCLUSIONS: The longitudinal increase in SUA in females could increase the risk of MetS, even if the SUA changes within the normal range. The longitudinal increase in SUA in males was not a predictor for MetS.