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Nonlinear dynamics of a time-delayed epidemic model with two explicit aware classes, saturated incidences, and treatment

Whenever a disease emerges, awareness in susceptibles prompts them to take preventive measures, which influence individuals’ behaviors. Therefore, we present and analyze a time-delayed epidemic model in which class of susceptible individuals is divided into three subclasses: unaware susceptibles, fu...

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Autores principales: Goel, Kanica, Kumar, Abhishek, Nilam
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Netherlands 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7334637/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32836810
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11071-020-05762-9
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author Goel, Kanica
Kumar, Abhishek
Nilam
author_facet Goel, Kanica
Kumar, Abhishek
Nilam
author_sort Goel, Kanica
collection PubMed
description Whenever a disease emerges, awareness in susceptibles prompts them to take preventive measures, which influence individuals’ behaviors. Therefore, we present and analyze a time-delayed epidemic model in which class of susceptible individuals is divided into three subclasses: unaware susceptibles, fully aware susceptibles, and partially aware susceptibles to the disease, respectively, which emphasizes to consider three explicit incidences. The saturated type of incidence rates and treatment rate of infectives are deliberated herein. The mathematical analysis shows that the model has two equilibria: disease-free and endemic. We derive the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] of the model and study the stability behavior of the model at both disease-free and endemic equilibria. Through analysis, it is demonstrated that the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable when [Formula: see text] , unstable when [Formula: see text] , and linearly neutrally stable when [Formula: see text] for the time delay [Formula: see text] . Further, an undelayed epidemic model is studied when [Formula: see text] , which reveals that the model exhibits forward and backward bifurcations under specific conditions, which also has important implications in the study of disease transmission dynamics. Moreover, we investigate the stability behavior of the endemic equilibrium and show that Hopf bifurcation occurs near endemic equilibrium when we choose time delay as a bifurcation parameter. Lastly, numerical simulations are performed in support of our analytical results.
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spelling pubmed-73346372020-07-06 Nonlinear dynamics of a time-delayed epidemic model with two explicit aware classes, saturated incidences, and treatment Goel, Kanica Kumar, Abhishek Nilam Nonlinear Dyn Original Paper Whenever a disease emerges, awareness in susceptibles prompts them to take preventive measures, which influence individuals’ behaviors. Therefore, we present and analyze a time-delayed epidemic model in which class of susceptible individuals is divided into three subclasses: unaware susceptibles, fully aware susceptibles, and partially aware susceptibles to the disease, respectively, which emphasizes to consider three explicit incidences. The saturated type of incidence rates and treatment rate of infectives are deliberated herein. The mathematical analysis shows that the model has two equilibria: disease-free and endemic. We derive the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] of the model and study the stability behavior of the model at both disease-free and endemic equilibria. Through analysis, it is demonstrated that the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable when [Formula: see text] , unstable when [Formula: see text] , and linearly neutrally stable when [Formula: see text] for the time delay [Formula: see text] . Further, an undelayed epidemic model is studied when [Formula: see text] , which reveals that the model exhibits forward and backward bifurcations under specific conditions, which also has important implications in the study of disease transmission dynamics. Moreover, we investigate the stability behavior of the endemic equilibrium and show that Hopf bifurcation occurs near endemic equilibrium when we choose time delay as a bifurcation parameter. Lastly, numerical simulations are performed in support of our analytical results. Springer Netherlands 2020-07-04 2020 /pmc/articles/PMC7334637/ /pubmed/32836810 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11071-020-05762-9 Text en © Springer Nature B.V. 2020 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Original Paper
Goel, Kanica
Kumar, Abhishek
Nilam
Nonlinear dynamics of a time-delayed epidemic model with two explicit aware classes, saturated incidences, and treatment
title Nonlinear dynamics of a time-delayed epidemic model with two explicit aware classes, saturated incidences, and treatment
title_full Nonlinear dynamics of a time-delayed epidemic model with two explicit aware classes, saturated incidences, and treatment
title_fullStr Nonlinear dynamics of a time-delayed epidemic model with two explicit aware classes, saturated incidences, and treatment
title_full_unstemmed Nonlinear dynamics of a time-delayed epidemic model with two explicit aware classes, saturated incidences, and treatment
title_short Nonlinear dynamics of a time-delayed epidemic model with two explicit aware classes, saturated incidences, and treatment
title_sort nonlinear dynamics of a time-delayed epidemic model with two explicit aware classes, saturated incidences, and treatment
topic Original Paper
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7334637/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32836810
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11071-020-05762-9
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