On the role of governmental action and individual reaction on COVID-19 dynamics in South Africa: A mathematical modelling study

Mathematical models proffer a rational basis to epidemiologists and policy makers on how, where and when to control an infectious disease. Through mathematical models one can explore and provide solutions to phenomena which are difficult to measure in the field. In this paper, a mathematical model has been used to explore the role of government and individuals reaction to the recent outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The proposed framework incorporates all the relevant biological factors as well as the effects of individual behavioral reaction and government action such as travel restrictions, social distancing, hospitalization, quarantine and hygiene measures. Understanding the dynamics of this highly contagious SARS-CoV-2, which at present does not have any therapy assist the policy makers on evaluating the effectiveness of the control measures currently being implemented. Moreover, policy makers can have insights on short-and-long term dynamics of the disease. The proposed conceptual framework was combined with data on cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in South Africa, March 2020 to early May 2020. Overall, our work demonstrated optimal conditions necessary for the infection to die out as well as persist.