Cargando…
Evolution of effective serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 by non-pharmaceutical interventions
Studies of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) have reported varying estimates of epidemiological parameters such as serial intervals and reproduction numbers. By compiling a unique line-list database of transmission pairs in mainland China, we demonstrated that serial intervals of COVID-19 have sh...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
American Journal Experts
2020
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7336698/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32702717 http://dx.doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-32486/v1 |
_version_ | 1783554370266202112 |
---|---|
author | Ali, Sheikh Taslim Wang, Lin Lau, Eric H. Y. Xu, Xiao-Ke Du, Zhanwei Wu, Ye Leung, Gabriel M. Cowling, Benjamin J. |
author_facet | Ali, Sheikh Taslim Wang, Lin Lau, Eric H. Y. Xu, Xiao-Ke Du, Zhanwei Wu, Ye Leung, Gabriel M. Cowling, Benjamin J. |
author_sort | Ali, Sheikh Taslim |
collection | PubMed |
description | Studies of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) have reported varying estimates of epidemiological parameters such as serial intervals and reproduction numbers. By compiling a unique line-list database of transmission pairs in mainland China, we demonstrated that serial intervals of COVID-19 have shortened substantially from a mean of 7.8 days to 2.6 days within a month. This change is driven by enhanced non-pharmaceutical interventions, in particular case isolation. We also demonstrated that using real-time estimation of serial intervals allowing for variation over time would provide more accurate estimates of reproduction numbers, than by using conventional definition of fixed serial interval distributions. These findings are essential to improve the assessment of transmission dynamics, forecasting future incidence, and estimating the impact of control measures. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7336698 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | American Journal Experts |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-73366982020-07-14 Evolution of effective serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 by non-pharmaceutical interventions Ali, Sheikh Taslim Wang, Lin Lau, Eric H. Y. Xu, Xiao-Ke Du, Zhanwei Wu, Ye Leung, Gabriel M. Cowling, Benjamin J. Res Sq Article Studies of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) have reported varying estimates of epidemiological parameters such as serial intervals and reproduction numbers. By compiling a unique line-list database of transmission pairs in mainland China, we demonstrated that serial intervals of COVID-19 have shortened substantially from a mean of 7.8 days to 2.6 days within a month. This change is driven by enhanced non-pharmaceutical interventions, in particular case isolation. We also demonstrated that using real-time estimation of serial intervals allowing for variation over time would provide more accurate estimates of reproduction numbers, than by using conventional definition of fixed serial interval distributions. These findings are essential to improve the assessment of transmission dynamics, forecasting future incidence, and estimating the impact of control measures. American Journal Experts 2020-06-01 /pmc/articles/PMC7336698/ /pubmed/32702717 http://dx.doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-32486/v1 Text en https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which allows reusers to distribute, remix, adapt, and build upon the material in any medium or format, so long as attribution is given to the creator. The license allows for commercial use. License: This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. Read Full License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) |
spellingShingle | Article Ali, Sheikh Taslim Wang, Lin Lau, Eric H. Y. Xu, Xiao-Ke Du, Zhanwei Wu, Ye Leung, Gabriel M. Cowling, Benjamin J. Evolution of effective serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 by non-pharmaceutical interventions |
title | Evolution of effective serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 by non-pharmaceutical interventions |
title_full | Evolution of effective serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 by non-pharmaceutical interventions |
title_fullStr | Evolution of effective serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 by non-pharmaceutical interventions |
title_full_unstemmed | Evolution of effective serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 by non-pharmaceutical interventions |
title_short | Evolution of effective serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 by non-pharmaceutical interventions |
title_sort | evolution of effective serial interval of sars-cov-2 by non-pharmaceutical interventions |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7336698/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32702717 http://dx.doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-32486/v1 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT alisheikhtaslim evolutionofeffectiveserialintervalofsarscov2bynonpharmaceuticalinterventions AT wanglin evolutionofeffectiveserialintervalofsarscov2bynonpharmaceuticalinterventions AT lauerichy evolutionofeffectiveserialintervalofsarscov2bynonpharmaceuticalinterventions AT xuxiaoke evolutionofeffectiveserialintervalofsarscov2bynonpharmaceuticalinterventions AT duzhanwei evolutionofeffectiveserialintervalofsarscov2bynonpharmaceuticalinterventions AT wuye evolutionofeffectiveserialintervalofsarscov2bynonpharmaceuticalinterventions AT leunggabrielm evolutionofeffectiveserialintervalofsarscov2bynonpharmaceuticalinterventions AT cowlingbenjaminj evolutionofeffectiveserialintervalofsarscov2bynonpharmaceuticalinterventions |