Incidence and Predictors of Recurrence among Breast Cancer Patients in Black Lion Specialized Hospital Adult Oncology Unit, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: Retrospective Follow-up Study with Survival Analysis

Currently, breast cancer is becoming a major public health problem for developing countries. In Ethiopia, breast cancer is the most prevalent cancer among women, and constitutes a major public health concern. Hence, this study was aimed to determine the incidence and predictor of recurrence among breast cancer clients at Black Lion Specialized Hospital, Ethiopia, in 2018. We analyzed 513 patients out of 835 women breast cancer patients treated at Black Lion Specialized Hospital. Recurrent-free survival was determined using the Kaplan–Meier method, with comparisons between groups through the log-rank test. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify predictors of recurrence among breast cancer clients. The incidence rate of recurrence among breast cancer was 6.5% per (95% CI = 6.49-12.47) follow-up. The median recurrent-free survival time was 60.33 months (95% CI = 54.46-62.30). Predictors of recurrence were negative estrogen receptor (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.8, 95% CI = 1.53-7.62), high histologic grade (HR = 2.8, 95% CI = 1.14-10.31), positive lymph node status (HR = 2.6, 95% CI = 1.14-10.31), clinical staging III (HR = 2.5, 95% CI = 1.26-9.42), and involved deep surgical margin (HR = 3.6, 95% CI = 2.14-8.61). This research showed that incidence of recurrence was high. Advanced clinical stage, positive nodal status, high histologic grade, negative estrogen receptor, and involved deep surgical margin were associated with higher recurrence rates. In contrast, hormonal therapy has a great role in decreasing the development of recurrence.