Social determinants of COVID-19 mortality at the county level

The United States is currently the global epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic. Emerging data suggests that social determinants of health may be key drivers of the epidemic, and that minorities, migrants, and essential workers may bear a disproportionate degree of risk. We used publicly accessible datasets to build a series of spatial autoregressive models assessing county level associations between COVID-19 mortality and (1) Percentage of Non-English speaking households, (2) percentage of individuals engaged in hired farm work, (3) percentage of uninsured individuals under the age of 65, and (3) percentage of individuals living at or below the poverty line. Across all counties (n=2940), counties with more farmworkers, more residents living in poverty, higher density, and more residents over the age of 65 had significantly higher levels of mortality. In urban counties (n=114), only county density was significantly associated with mortality. In non-urban counties (n=2826), counties with more non-English speaking households and more farm workers had significantly higher levels of mortality, as did counties with higher levels of poverty and more residents over the age of 65. More uninsured residents was significantly associated with decreased reported COVID-19 mortality. Individuals who do not speak English, individuals engaged in farm work, and individuals living in poverty may be at heightened risk for COVID-19 mortality in non-urban counties. Mortality among the uninsured may be being systematically undercounted in county and national level surveillance.