Network-inference-based prediction of the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak in the Chinese province Hubei

At the moment of writing, the future evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic is unclear. Predictions of the further course of the epidemic are decisive to deploy targeted disease control measures. We consider a network-based model to describe the COVID-19 epidemic in the Hubei province. The network is co...

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Autores principales: Prasse, Bastian, Achterberg, Massimo A., Ma, Long, Van Mieghem, Piet
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer International Publishing 2020
Materias:
Research
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7341469/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32835088
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s41109-020-00274-2
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author Prasse, Bastian
Achterberg, Massimo A.
Ma, Long
Van Mieghem, Piet
author_facet Prasse, Bastian
Achterberg, Massimo A.
Ma, Long
Van Mieghem, Piet
author_sort Prasse, Bastian
collection PubMed
description At the moment of writing, the future evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic is unclear. Predictions of the further course of the epidemic are decisive to deploy targeted disease control measures. We consider a network-based model to describe the COVID-19 epidemic in the Hubei province. The network is composed of the cities in Hubei and their interactions (e.g., traffic flow). However, the precise interactions between cities is unknown and must be inferred from observing the epidemic. We propose the Network-Inference-Based Prediction Algorithm (NIPA) to forecast the future prevalence of the COVID-19 epidemic in every city. Our results indicate that NIPA is beneficial for an accurate forecast of the epidemic outbreak.
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spelling pubmed-73414692020-07-08 Network-inference-based prediction of the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak in the Chinese province Hubei Prasse, Bastian Achterberg, Massimo A. Ma, Long Van Mieghem, Piet Appl Netw Sci Research At the moment of writing, the future evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic is unclear. Predictions of the further course of the epidemic are decisive to deploy targeted disease control measures. We consider a network-based model to describe the COVID-19 epidemic in the Hubei province. The network is composed of the cities in Hubei and their interactions (e.g., traffic flow). However, the precise interactions between cities is unknown and must be inferred from observing the epidemic. We propose the Network-Inference-Based Prediction Algorithm (NIPA) to forecast the future prevalence of the COVID-19 epidemic in every city. Our results indicate that NIPA is beneficial for an accurate forecast of the epidemic outbreak. Springer International Publishing 2020-07-08 2020 /pmc/articles/PMC7341469/ /pubmed/32835088 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s41109-020-00274-2 Text en © The Author(s) 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Research
Prasse, Bastian
Achterberg, Massimo A.
Ma, Long
Van Mieghem, Piet
Network-inference-based prediction of the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak in the Chinese province Hubei
title Network-inference-based prediction of the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak in the Chinese province Hubei
title_full Network-inference-based prediction of the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak in the Chinese province Hubei
title_fullStr Network-inference-based prediction of the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak in the Chinese province Hubei
title_full_unstemmed Network-inference-based prediction of the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak in the Chinese province Hubei
title_short Network-inference-based prediction of the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak in the Chinese province Hubei
title_sort network-inference-based prediction of the covid-19 epidemic outbreak in the chinese province hubei
topic Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7341469/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32835088
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s41109-020-00274-2
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