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Predictive Model of the Risk of In-Hospital Mortality in Colorectal Cancer Surgery, Based on the Minimum Basic Data Set

Background: Various models have been proposed to predict mortality rates for hospital patients undergoing colorectal cancer surgery. However, none have been developed in Spain using clinical administrative databases and none are based exclusively on the variables available upon admission. Our study...

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Autores principales: García-Torrecillas, Juan Manuel, Olvera-Porcel, María Carmen, Ferrer-Márquez, Manuel, Rosa-Garrido, Carmen, Rodríguez-Barranco, Miguel, Lea-Pereira, María Carmen, Rubio-Gil, Francisco, Sánchez, María-José
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2020
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Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7344523/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32545670
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17124216
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author García-Torrecillas, Juan Manuel
Olvera-Porcel, María Carmen
Ferrer-Márquez, Manuel
Rosa-Garrido, Carmen
Rodríguez-Barranco, Miguel
Lea-Pereira, María Carmen
Rubio-Gil, Francisco
Sánchez, María-José
author_facet García-Torrecillas, Juan Manuel
Olvera-Porcel, María Carmen
Ferrer-Márquez, Manuel
Rosa-Garrido, Carmen
Rodríguez-Barranco, Miguel
Lea-Pereira, María Carmen
Rubio-Gil, Francisco
Sánchez, María-José
author_sort García-Torrecillas, Juan Manuel
collection PubMed
description Background: Various models have been proposed to predict mortality rates for hospital patients undergoing colorectal cancer surgery. However, none have been developed in Spain using clinical administrative databases and none are based exclusively on the variables available upon admission. Our study aim is to detect factors associated with in-hospital mortality in patients undergoing surgery for colorectal cancer and, on this basis, to generate a predictive mortality score. Methods: A population cohort for analysis was obtained as all hospital admissions for colorectal cancer during the period 2008–2014, according to the Spanish Minimum Basic Data Set. The main measure was actual and expected mortality after the application of the considered mathematical model. A logistic regression model and a mortality score were created, and internal validation was performed. Results: 115,841 hospitalization episodes were studied. Of these, 80% were included in the training set. The variables associated with in-hospital mortality were age (OR: 1.06, 95%CI: 1.05–1.06), urgent admission (OR: 4.68, 95% CI: 4.36–5.02), pulmonary disease (OR: 1.43, 95%CI: 1.28–1.60), stroke (OR: 1.87, 95%CI: 1.53–2.29) and renal insufficiency (OR: 7.26, 95%CI: 6.65–7.94). The level of discrimination (area under the curve) was 0.83. Conclusions: This mortality model is the first to be based on administrative clinical databases and hospitalization episodes. The model achieves a moderate–high level of discrimination.
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spelling pubmed-73445232020-07-09 Predictive Model of the Risk of In-Hospital Mortality in Colorectal Cancer Surgery, Based on the Minimum Basic Data Set García-Torrecillas, Juan Manuel Olvera-Porcel, María Carmen Ferrer-Márquez, Manuel Rosa-Garrido, Carmen Rodríguez-Barranco, Miguel Lea-Pereira, María Carmen Rubio-Gil, Francisco Sánchez, María-José Int J Environ Res Public Health Article Background: Various models have been proposed to predict mortality rates for hospital patients undergoing colorectal cancer surgery. However, none have been developed in Spain using clinical administrative databases and none are based exclusively on the variables available upon admission. Our study aim is to detect factors associated with in-hospital mortality in patients undergoing surgery for colorectal cancer and, on this basis, to generate a predictive mortality score. Methods: A population cohort for analysis was obtained as all hospital admissions for colorectal cancer during the period 2008–2014, according to the Spanish Minimum Basic Data Set. The main measure was actual and expected mortality after the application of the considered mathematical model. A logistic regression model and a mortality score were created, and internal validation was performed. Results: 115,841 hospitalization episodes were studied. Of these, 80% were included in the training set. The variables associated with in-hospital mortality were age (OR: 1.06, 95%CI: 1.05–1.06), urgent admission (OR: 4.68, 95% CI: 4.36–5.02), pulmonary disease (OR: 1.43, 95%CI: 1.28–1.60), stroke (OR: 1.87, 95%CI: 1.53–2.29) and renal insufficiency (OR: 7.26, 95%CI: 6.65–7.94). The level of discrimination (area under the curve) was 0.83. Conclusions: This mortality model is the first to be based on administrative clinical databases and hospitalization episodes. The model achieves a moderate–high level of discrimination. MDPI 2020-06-12 2020-06 /pmc/articles/PMC7344523/ /pubmed/32545670 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17124216 Text en © 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
García-Torrecillas, Juan Manuel
Olvera-Porcel, María Carmen
Ferrer-Márquez, Manuel
Rosa-Garrido, Carmen
Rodríguez-Barranco, Miguel
Lea-Pereira, María Carmen
Rubio-Gil, Francisco
Sánchez, María-José
Predictive Model of the Risk of In-Hospital Mortality in Colorectal Cancer Surgery, Based on the Minimum Basic Data Set
title Predictive Model of the Risk of In-Hospital Mortality in Colorectal Cancer Surgery, Based on the Minimum Basic Data Set
title_full Predictive Model of the Risk of In-Hospital Mortality in Colorectal Cancer Surgery, Based on the Minimum Basic Data Set
title_fullStr Predictive Model of the Risk of In-Hospital Mortality in Colorectal Cancer Surgery, Based on the Minimum Basic Data Set
title_full_unstemmed Predictive Model of the Risk of In-Hospital Mortality in Colorectal Cancer Surgery, Based on the Minimum Basic Data Set
title_short Predictive Model of the Risk of In-Hospital Mortality in Colorectal Cancer Surgery, Based on the Minimum Basic Data Set
title_sort predictive model of the risk of in-hospital mortality in colorectal cancer surgery, based on the minimum basic data set
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7344523/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32545670
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17124216
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