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COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate Associated with Incidence—A Population-Level Analysis of 19 Spanish Autonomous Communities

Previous studies have found large variations in the COVID-19 infection fatality rate (IFR). This study hypothesized that IFR would be influenced by COVID-19 epidemic intensity. We tested the association between epidemic intensity and IFR using serological results from a recent large SARS-CoV-2 seros...

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Autor principal: Kenyon, Chris
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7345771/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32560071
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/biology9060128
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author Kenyon, Chris
author_facet Kenyon, Chris
author_sort Kenyon, Chris
collection PubMed
description Previous studies have found large variations in the COVID-19 infection fatality rate (IFR). This study hypothesized that IFR would be influenced by COVID-19 epidemic intensity. We tested the association between epidemic intensity and IFR using serological results from a recent large SARS-CoV-2 serosurvey (N = 60,983) in 19 Spanish regions. The infection fatality rate for Spain as a whole was 1.15% and varied between 0.13% and 3.25% in the regions (median 1.07%, IQR 0.69–1.32%). The IFR by region was positively associated with SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence (rho = 0.54; p = 0.0162), cases/100,000 (rho = 0.75; p = 0.002), hospitalizations/100,000 (rho = 0.78; p = 0.0001), mortality/100,000 (rho = 0.77; p = 0.0001) and case fatality rate (rho = 0.49; p = 0.0327). These results suggest that the SARS-CoV-2 IFR is not fixed. The Spanish regions with more rapid and extensive spread of SARS-CoV-2 had higher IFRs. These findings are compatible with the theory that slowing the spread of COVID-19 down reduces the IFR and case fatality rate via preventing hospitals from being overrun, and thus allowing better and lifesaving care.
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spelling pubmed-73457712020-07-09 COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate Associated with Incidence—A Population-Level Analysis of 19 Spanish Autonomous Communities Kenyon, Chris Biology (Basel) Letter Previous studies have found large variations in the COVID-19 infection fatality rate (IFR). This study hypothesized that IFR would be influenced by COVID-19 epidemic intensity. We tested the association between epidemic intensity and IFR using serological results from a recent large SARS-CoV-2 serosurvey (N = 60,983) in 19 Spanish regions. The infection fatality rate for Spain as a whole was 1.15% and varied between 0.13% and 3.25% in the regions (median 1.07%, IQR 0.69–1.32%). The IFR by region was positively associated with SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence (rho = 0.54; p = 0.0162), cases/100,000 (rho = 0.75; p = 0.002), hospitalizations/100,000 (rho = 0.78; p = 0.0001), mortality/100,000 (rho = 0.77; p = 0.0001) and case fatality rate (rho = 0.49; p = 0.0327). These results suggest that the SARS-CoV-2 IFR is not fixed. The Spanish regions with more rapid and extensive spread of SARS-CoV-2 had higher IFRs. These findings are compatible with the theory that slowing the spread of COVID-19 down reduces the IFR and case fatality rate via preventing hospitals from being overrun, and thus allowing better and lifesaving care. MDPI 2020-06-16 /pmc/articles/PMC7345771/ /pubmed/32560071 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/biology9060128 Text en © 2020 by the author. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Letter
Kenyon, Chris
COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate Associated with Incidence—A Population-Level Analysis of 19 Spanish Autonomous Communities
title COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate Associated with Incidence—A Population-Level Analysis of 19 Spanish Autonomous Communities
title_full COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate Associated with Incidence—A Population-Level Analysis of 19 Spanish Autonomous Communities
title_fullStr COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate Associated with Incidence—A Population-Level Analysis of 19 Spanish Autonomous Communities
title_full_unstemmed COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate Associated with Incidence—A Population-Level Analysis of 19 Spanish Autonomous Communities
title_short COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate Associated with Incidence—A Population-Level Analysis of 19 Spanish Autonomous Communities
title_sort covid-19 infection fatality rate associated with incidence—a population-level analysis of 19 spanish autonomous communities
topic Letter
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7345771/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32560071
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/biology9060128
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