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Epidemiology of Coronavirus COVID-19: Forecasting the Future Incidence in Different Countries

This paper forecasts the future spread of COVID-19 by exploiting the identified lead-lag effects between different countries. Specifically, we first determine the past relation among nations with the aid of dynamic time warping. This procedure allows an elastic adjustment of the time axis to find si...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Stübinger, Johannes, Schneider, Lucas
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7349853/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32326512
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/healthcare8020099
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author Stübinger, Johannes
Schneider, Lucas
author_facet Stübinger, Johannes
Schneider, Lucas
author_sort Stübinger, Johannes
collection PubMed
description This paper forecasts the future spread of COVID-19 by exploiting the identified lead-lag effects between different countries. Specifically, we first determine the past relation among nations with the aid of dynamic time warping. This procedure allows an elastic adjustment of the time axis to find similar but phase-shifted sequences. Afterwards, the established framework utilizes information about the leading country to predict the Coronavirus spread of the following nation. The presented methodology is applied to confirmed Coronavirus cases from 1 January 2020 to 28 March 2020. Our results show that China leads all other countries in the range of 29 days for South Korea and 44 days for the United States. Finally, we predict a future collapse of the healthcare systems of the United Kingdom and Switzerland in case of our explosion scenario.
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spelling pubmed-73498532020-07-15 Epidemiology of Coronavirus COVID-19: Forecasting the Future Incidence in Different Countries Stübinger, Johannes Schneider, Lucas Healthcare (Basel) Article This paper forecasts the future spread of COVID-19 by exploiting the identified lead-lag effects between different countries. Specifically, we first determine the past relation among nations with the aid of dynamic time warping. This procedure allows an elastic adjustment of the time axis to find similar but phase-shifted sequences. Afterwards, the established framework utilizes information about the leading country to predict the Coronavirus spread of the following nation. The presented methodology is applied to confirmed Coronavirus cases from 1 January 2020 to 28 March 2020. Our results show that China leads all other countries in the range of 29 days for South Korea and 44 days for the United States. Finally, we predict a future collapse of the healthcare systems of the United Kingdom and Switzerland in case of our explosion scenario. MDPI 2020-04-15 /pmc/articles/PMC7349853/ /pubmed/32326512 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/healthcare8020099 Text en © 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Stübinger, Johannes
Schneider, Lucas
Epidemiology of Coronavirus COVID-19: Forecasting the Future Incidence in Different Countries
title Epidemiology of Coronavirus COVID-19: Forecasting the Future Incidence in Different Countries
title_full Epidemiology of Coronavirus COVID-19: Forecasting the Future Incidence in Different Countries
title_fullStr Epidemiology of Coronavirus COVID-19: Forecasting the Future Incidence in Different Countries
title_full_unstemmed Epidemiology of Coronavirus COVID-19: Forecasting the Future Incidence in Different Countries
title_short Epidemiology of Coronavirus COVID-19: Forecasting the Future Incidence in Different Countries
title_sort epidemiology of coronavirus covid-19: forecasting the future incidence in different countries
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7349853/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32326512
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/healthcare8020099
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