Adherence to a food group-based dietary guideline and incidence of prediabetes and type 2 diabetes

PURPOSE: In this study, we investigated the association between adherence to the Dutch Healthy Diet index 2015 (DHD15-index) and incidence of prediabetes (preT2D) and Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) in a representative sample for the general Dutch population. METHODS: Two prospective cohort studies, The Hoorn and The New Hoorn Study, were used for data analyses. In total, data from 2951 participants without diabetes at baseline (mean age 56.5 ± 7.5 years; 49.6% male) were harmonized. Baseline dietary intake was assessed with validated Food Frequency Questionnaires and adherence to the DHD15-index was calculated (range 0–130). PreT2D and T2D were classified according to the WHO criteria 2011. Poisson regression was used to estimate prevalence ratios between participant scores on the DHD15-index and preT2D and T2D, adjusted for follow-up duration, energy intake, socio-demographic, and lifestyle factors. Change in fasting plasma glucose levels (mmol/L) over follow-up was analysed using linear regression analyses, additionally adjusted for baseline value. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 6.3 ± 0.7 years, 837 participants developed preT2D and 321 participants developed T2D. The highest adherence to the DHD15-index was significantly associated with lower T2D incidence [model 3, PR(T3vsT1): 0.70 (0.53; 0.92), p(trend) = 0.01]. The highest adherence to the DHD15-index pointed towards a lower incidence of preT2D [PR(T3vsT1): 0.87 (0.74; 1.03), p(trend) = 0.11]. Higher adherence to the DHD15-index was not associated with change in fasting plasma glucose levels [β(10point): − 0.012 (− 0.034; 0.009)mmol/L]. CONCLUSION: The present study showed that the highest compared to the lowest adherence to the DHD15-index was associated with a lower T2D incidence, and pointed towards a lower incidence of preT2D. These results support the benefits of adhering to the guidelines in T2D prevention. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s00394-019-02064-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.