Cargando…
Weekly COVID-19 testing with household quarantine and contact tracing is feasible and would probably end the epidemic
The COVID-19 epidemic can probably be ended and normal life restored, perhaps quite quickly, by weekly SARS-CoV-2 RNA testing together with household quarantine and systematic contact tracing. Isolated outbreaks could then be contained by contact tracing, supplemented if necessary by temporary local...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
The Royal Society
2020
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7353981/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32742705 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.200915 |
_version_ | 1783557998965161984 |
---|---|
author | Peto, Julian Carpenter, James Smith, George Davey Duffy, Stephen Houlston, Richard Hunter, David J. McPherson, Klim Pearce, Neil Romer, Paul Sasieni, Peter Turnbull, Clare |
author_facet | Peto, Julian Carpenter, James Smith, George Davey Duffy, Stephen Houlston, Richard Hunter, David J. McPherson, Klim Pearce, Neil Romer, Paul Sasieni, Peter Turnbull, Clare |
author_sort | Peto, Julian |
collection | PubMed |
description | The COVID-19 epidemic can probably be ended and normal life restored, perhaps quite quickly, by weekly SARS-CoV-2 RNA testing together with household quarantine and systematic contact tracing. Isolated outbreaks could then be contained by contact tracing, supplemented if necessary by temporary local reintroduction of population testing or lockdown. Leading public health experts have recommended that this should be tried in a demonstration project in which a medium-sized city introduces weekly testing and lifts lockdown completely. The idea was not considered by the groups whose predictions have guided UK policy, so we have examined the statistical case for such a study. The combination of regular testing with strict household quarantine, which was not analysed in their models, has remarkable power to reduce transmission to the community from other household members as well as providing earlier diagnosis and facilitating rapid contact tracing. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7353981 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | The Royal Society |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-73539812020-07-31 Weekly COVID-19 testing with household quarantine and contact tracing is feasible and would probably end the epidemic Peto, Julian Carpenter, James Smith, George Davey Duffy, Stephen Houlston, Richard Hunter, David J. McPherson, Klim Pearce, Neil Romer, Paul Sasieni, Peter Turnbull, Clare R Soc Open Sci Ecology, Conservation, and Global Change Biology The COVID-19 epidemic can probably be ended and normal life restored, perhaps quite quickly, by weekly SARS-CoV-2 RNA testing together with household quarantine and systematic contact tracing. Isolated outbreaks could then be contained by contact tracing, supplemented if necessary by temporary local reintroduction of population testing or lockdown. Leading public health experts have recommended that this should be tried in a demonstration project in which a medium-sized city introduces weekly testing and lifts lockdown completely. The idea was not considered by the groups whose predictions have guided UK policy, so we have examined the statistical case for such a study. The combination of regular testing with strict household quarantine, which was not analysed in their models, has remarkable power to reduce transmission to the community from other household members as well as providing earlier diagnosis and facilitating rapid contact tracing. The Royal Society 2020-06-24 /pmc/articles/PMC7353981/ /pubmed/32742705 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.200915 Text en © 2020 The Authors. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Ecology, Conservation, and Global Change Biology Peto, Julian Carpenter, James Smith, George Davey Duffy, Stephen Houlston, Richard Hunter, David J. McPherson, Klim Pearce, Neil Romer, Paul Sasieni, Peter Turnbull, Clare Weekly COVID-19 testing with household quarantine and contact tracing is feasible and would probably end the epidemic |
title | Weekly COVID-19 testing with household quarantine and contact tracing is feasible and would probably end the epidemic |
title_full | Weekly COVID-19 testing with household quarantine and contact tracing is feasible and would probably end the epidemic |
title_fullStr | Weekly COVID-19 testing with household quarantine and contact tracing is feasible and would probably end the epidemic |
title_full_unstemmed | Weekly COVID-19 testing with household quarantine and contact tracing is feasible and would probably end the epidemic |
title_short | Weekly COVID-19 testing with household quarantine and contact tracing is feasible and would probably end the epidemic |
title_sort | weekly covid-19 testing with household quarantine and contact tracing is feasible and would probably end the epidemic |
topic | Ecology, Conservation, and Global Change Biology |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7353981/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32742705 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.200915 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT petojulian weeklycovid19testingwithhouseholdquarantineandcontacttracingisfeasibleandwouldprobablyendtheepidemic AT carpenterjames weeklycovid19testingwithhouseholdquarantineandcontacttracingisfeasibleandwouldprobablyendtheepidemic AT smithgeorgedavey weeklycovid19testingwithhouseholdquarantineandcontacttracingisfeasibleandwouldprobablyendtheepidemic AT duffystephen weeklycovid19testingwithhouseholdquarantineandcontacttracingisfeasibleandwouldprobablyendtheepidemic AT houlstonrichard weeklycovid19testingwithhouseholdquarantineandcontacttracingisfeasibleandwouldprobablyendtheepidemic AT hunterdavidj weeklycovid19testingwithhouseholdquarantineandcontacttracingisfeasibleandwouldprobablyendtheepidemic AT mcphersonklim weeklycovid19testingwithhouseholdquarantineandcontacttracingisfeasibleandwouldprobablyendtheepidemic AT pearceneil weeklycovid19testingwithhouseholdquarantineandcontacttracingisfeasibleandwouldprobablyendtheepidemic AT romerpaul weeklycovid19testingwithhouseholdquarantineandcontacttracingisfeasibleandwouldprobablyendtheepidemic AT sasienipeter weeklycovid19testingwithhouseholdquarantineandcontacttracingisfeasibleandwouldprobablyendtheepidemic AT turnbullclare weeklycovid19testingwithhouseholdquarantineandcontacttracingisfeasibleandwouldprobablyendtheepidemic |