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Weekly COVID-19 testing with household quarantine and contact tracing is feasible and would probably end the epidemic

The COVID-19 epidemic can probably be ended and normal life restored, perhaps quite quickly, by weekly SARS-CoV-2 RNA testing together with household quarantine and systematic contact tracing. Isolated outbreaks could then be contained by contact tracing, supplemented if necessary by temporary local...

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Autores principales: Peto, Julian, Carpenter, James, Smith, George Davey, Duffy, Stephen, Houlston, Richard, Hunter, David J., McPherson, Klim, Pearce, Neil, Romer, Paul, Sasieni, Peter, Turnbull, Clare
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Royal Society 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7353981/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32742705
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.200915
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author Peto, Julian
Carpenter, James
Smith, George Davey
Duffy, Stephen
Houlston, Richard
Hunter, David J.
McPherson, Klim
Pearce, Neil
Romer, Paul
Sasieni, Peter
Turnbull, Clare
author_facet Peto, Julian
Carpenter, James
Smith, George Davey
Duffy, Stephen
Houlston, Richard
Hunter, David J.
McPherson, Klim
Pearce, Neil
Romer, Paul
Sasieni, Peter
Turnbull, Clare
author_sort Peto, Julian
collection PubMed
description The COVID-19 epidemic can probably be ended and normal life restored, perhaps quite quickly, by weekly SARS-CoV-2 RNA testing together with household quarantine and systematic contact tracing. Isolated outbreaks could then be contained by contact tracing, supplemented if necessary by temporary local reintroduction of population testing or lockdown. Leading public health experts have recommended that this should be tried in a demonstration project in which a medium-sized city introduces weekly testing and lifts lockdown completely. The idea was not considered by the groups whose predictions have guided UK policy, so we have examined the statistical case for such a study. The combination of regular testing with strict household quarantine, which was not analysed in their models, has remarkable power to reduce transmission to the community from other household members as well as providing earlier diagnosis and facilitating rapid contact tracing.
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spelling pubmed-73539812020-07-31 Weekly COVID-19 testing with household quarantine and contact tracing is feasible and would probably end the epidemic Peto, Julian Carpenter, James Smith, George Davey Duffy, Stephen Houlston, Richard Hunter, David J. McPherson, Klim Pearce, Neil Romer, Paul Sasieni, Peter Turnbull, Clare R Soc Open Sci Ecology, Conservation, and Global Change Biology The COVID-19 epidemic can probably be ended and normal life restored, perhaps quite quickly, by weekly SARS-CoV-2 RNA testing together with household quarantine and systematic contact tracing. Isolated outbreaks could then be contained by contact tracing, supplemented if necessary by temporary local reintroduction of population testing or lockdown. Leading public health experts have recommended that this should be tried in a demonstration project in which a medium-sized city introduces weekly testing and lifts lockdown completely. The idea was not considered by the groups whose predictions have guided UK policy, so we have examined the statistical case for such a study. The combination of regular testing with strict household quarantine, which was not analysed in their models, has remarkable power to reduce transmission to the community from other household members as well as providing earlier diagnosis and facilitating rapid contact tracing. The Royal Society 2020-06-24 /pmc/articles/PMC7353981/ /pubmed/32742705 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.200915 Text en © 2020 The Authors. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Ecology, Conservation, and Global Change Biology
Peto, Julian
Carpenter, James
Smith, George Davey
Duffy, Stephen
Houlston, Richard
Hunter, David J.
McPherson, Klim
Pearce, Neil
Romer, Paul
Sasieni, Peter
Turnbull, Clare
Weekly COVID-19 testing with household quarantine and contact tracing is feasible and would probably end the epidemic
title Weekly COVID-19 testing with household quarantine and contact tracing is feasible and would probably end the epidemic
title_full Weekly COVID-19 testing with household quarantine and contact tracing is feasible and would probably end the epidemic
title_fullStr Weekly COVID-19 testing with household quarantine and contact tracing is feasible and would probably end the epidemic
title_full_unstemmed Weekly COVID-19 testing with household quarantine and contact tracing is feasible and would probably end the epidemic
title_short Weekly COVID-19 testing with household quarantine and contact tracing is feasible and would probably end the epidemic
title_sort weekly covid-19 testing with household quarantine and contact tracing is feasible and would probably end the epidemic
topic Ecology, Conservation, and Global Change Biology
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7353981/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32742705
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsos.200915
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