Association of a Novel Medication Risk Score with Adverse Drug Events and Other Pertinent Outcomes Among Participants of the Programs of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly

Preventable adverse drug events (ADEs) represent a significant public health challenge for the older adult population, since they are associated with higher medical expenditures and more hospitalizations and emergency department (ED) visits. This study examines whether a novel medication risk prediction tool, the MedWise Risk Score™ (MRS), is associated with ADEs and other pertinent outcomes in participants of the Programs of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE). Unlike other risk predictors, this tool produces actionable information that pharmacists can easily use to reduce ADE risk. This was a retrospective cross-sectional study that analyzed administrative medical claims data of 1965 PACE participants in 2018. To detect ADEs, we identified all claims that had ADE-related International Classification of Diseases and Health Related Problems, 10th revision (ICD-10) codes. Using logistic and linear regression models, we examined the association between the MRS and a variety of outcomes, including the number of PACE participants with an ADE, total medical expenditures, ED visits, hospitalizations, and hospital length of stay. We found significant associations for every outcome. Specifically, every point increase in the MRS corresponded to an 8.6% increase in the odds of having one or more ADEs per year (OR = 1.086, 95% CI: 1.060, 1.113), $1037 USD in additional annual medical spending (adjusted R(2) of 0.739; p < 0.001), 3.2 additional ED visits per 100 participants per year (adjusted R(2) of 0.568; p < 0.001), and 2.1 additional hospitalizations per 100 participants per year (adjusted R(2) of 0.804; p < 0.001). Therefore, the MRS can risk stratify PACE participants and predict a host of important and relevant outcomes pertaining to medication-related morbidity.