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State-level needs for social distancing and contact tracing to contain COVID-19 in the United States

Starting in mid-May 2020, many US states began relaxing social distancing measures that were put in place to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. To evaluate the impact of relaxation of restrictions on COVID-19 dynamics and control, we developed a transmission dynamic model and calibrated it to US state...

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Autores principales: Chiu, Weihsueh A., Fischer, Rebecca, Ndeffo-Mbah, Martial L.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: American Journal Experts 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7362894/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32702727
http://dx.doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-40364/v2
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author Chiu, Weihsueh A.
Fischer, Rebecca
Ndeffo-Mbah, Martial L.
author_facet Chiu, Weihsueh A.
Fischer, Rebecca
Ndeffo-Mbah, Martial L.
author_sort Chiu, Weihsueh A.
collection PubMed
description Starting in mid-May 2020, many US states began relaxing social distancing measures that were put in place to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. To evaluate the impact of relaxation of restrictions on COVID-19 dynamics and control, we developed a transmission dynamic model and calibrated it to US state-level COVID-19 cases and deaths. We used this model to evaluate the impact of social distancing, testing and contact tracing on the COVID-19 epidemic in each state. As of July 22, 2020, we found only three states were on track to curtail their epidemic curve. Thirty-nine states and the District of Columbia may have to double their testing and/or tracing rates and/or rolling back reopening by 25%, while eight states require an even greater measure of combined testing, tracing, and distancing. Increased testing and contact tracing capacity is paramount for mitigating the recent large-scale increases in U.S. cases and deaths.
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spelling pubmed-73628942020-07-22 State-level needs for social distancing and contact tracing to contain COVID-19 in the United States Chiu, Weihsueh A. Fischer, Rebecca Ndeffo-Mbah, Martial L. Res Sq Article Starting in mid-May 2020, many US states began relaxing social distancing measures that were put in place to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. To evaluate the impact of relaxation of restrictions on COVID-19 dynamics and control, we developed a transmission dynamic model and calibrated it to US state-level COVID-19 cases and deaths. We used this model to evaluate the impact of social distancing, testing and contact tracing on the COVID-19 epidemic in each state. As of July 22, 2020, we found only three states were on track to curtail their epidemic curve. Thirty-nine states and the District of Columbia may have to double their testing and/or tracing rates and/or rolling back reopening by 25%, while eight states require an even greater measure of combined testing, tracing, and distancing. Increased testing and contact tracing capacity is paramount for mitigating the recent large-scale increases in U.S. cases and deaths. American Journal Experts 2020-09-16 /pmc/articles/PMC7362894/ /pubmed/32702727 http://dx.doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-40364/v2 Text en https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which allows reusers to distribute, remix, adapt, and build upon the material in any medium or format, so long as attribution is given to the creator. The license allows for commercial use.
spellingShingle Article
Chiu, Weihsueh A.
Fischer, Rebecca
Ndeffo-Mbah, Martial L.
State-level needs for social distancing and contact tracing to contain COVID-19 in the United States
title State-level needs for social distancing and contact tracing to contain COVID-19 in the United States
title_full State-level needs for social distancing and contact tracing to contain COVID-19 in the United States
title_fullStr State-level needs for social distancing and contact tracing to contain COVID-19 in the United States
title_full_unstemmed State-level needs for social distancing and contact tracing to contain COVID-19 in the United States
title_short State-level needs for social distancing and contact tracing to contain COVID-19 in the United States
title_sort state-level needs for social distancing and contact tracing to contain covid-19 in the united states
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7362894/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32702727
http://dx.doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-40364/v2
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