The Probability of A1C Goal Attainment in Patients With Uncontrolled Type 2 Diabetes in a Large Integrated Delivery System: A Prediction Model

OBJECTIVE: To assess patient characteristics and treatment factors associated with uncontrolled type 2 diabetes (T2D) and the probability of hemoglobin A(1c) (A1C) goal attainment. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study using the electronic health record at Cleveland Clinic. Patients with uncontrolled T2D (A1C >9%) were identified on the index date of 31 December 2016 (n = 6,973) and grouped by attainment (n = 1,653 [23.7%]) or nonattainment (n = 5,320 [76.3%]) of A1C <8% by 31 December 2017, and subgroups were compared on a number of demographic and clinical variables. On the basis of these variables, a nomogram was created for predicting probability of A1C goal attainment. RESULTS: For the entire population, median age at index date was 57.7 years (53.3% male), and the majority were white (67.2%). Median A1C was 10.2%. Obesity (50.6%), cardiovascular disease (46.9%), and psychiatric disease (61.1%) were the most common comorbidities. Metformin (62.7%) and sulfonylureas (38.7%) were the most common antidiabetes medications. Only 1,653 (23.7%) patients achieved an A1C <8%. Predictors of increased probability of A1C goal attainment were older age, white/non-Hispanic race/ethnicity, Medicare health insurance, lower baseline A1C, higher frequency of endocrinology/primary care visits, dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitor use, thiazolidinedione use, metformin use, glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonist use, and fewer classes of antidiabetes drugs. Factors associated with lower probability included insulin use and longer time in the T2D database (both presumed as likely surrogates for duration of T2D). CONCLUSIONS: A minority of patients with an A1C >9% achieved an A1C <8% at 1 year. While most identified predictive factors are nonmodifiable by the clinician, pursuit of frequent patient engagement and tailored drug regimens may help to improve A1C goal attainment.