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A stretched logistic equation for pandemic spreading
In this brief work we present a novel approach to the logistic dynamics of populations and epidemic spreading that can take into account of the complex nature of such a process in several real situations, where due to different agents the dynamics is no longer characterized by a single characteristi...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Elsevier Ltd.
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7374175/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32834630 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110113 |
Sumario: | In this brief work we present a novel approach to the logistic dynamics of populations and epidemic spreading that can take into account of the complex nature of such a process in several real situations, where due to different agents the dynamics is no longer characterized by a single characteristic timescale, but conversely by a distribution of time scales, rendered via a time-dependent growth rate. In detail, a differential equation containing a power-law time dependent growth rate is proposed, whose solution, named Stretched Logistic Function, provides a modified version of the usual logistic function. The model equation is inspired by and applied to the recent spreading on COVID-19 disease in Italy, showing how the real dynamics of infection spreading is characterized by a time dependent dynamics. A speculative discussion of the Stretched Logistic Function in relation to diffusion processes is attempted. |
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