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A stretched logistic equation for pandemic spreading

In this brief work we present a novel approach to the logistic dynamics of populations and epidemic spreading that can take into account of the complex nature of such a process in several real situations, where due to different agents the dynamics is no longer characterized by a single characteristi...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Consolini, Giuseppe, Materassi, Massimo
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Ltd. 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7374175/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32834630
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110113
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author Consolini, Giuseppe
Materassi, Massimo
author_facet Consolini, Giuseppe
Materassi, Massimo
author_sort Consolini, Giuseppe
collection PubMed
description In this brief work we present a novel approach to the logistic dynamics of populations and epidemic spreading that can take into account of the complex nature of such a process in several real situations, where due to different agents the dynamics is no longer characterized by a single characteristic timescale, but conversely by a distribution of time scales, rendered via a time-dependent growth rate. In detail, a differential equation containing a power-law time dependent growth rate is proposed, whose solution, named Stretched Logistic Function, provides a modified version of the usual logistic function. The model equation is inspired by and applied to the recent spreading on COVID-19 disease in Italy, showing how the real dynamics of infection spreading is characterized by a time dependent dynamics. A speculative discussion of the Stretched Logistic Function in relation to diffusion processes is attempted.
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spelling pubmed-73741752020-07-22 A stretched logistic equation for pandemic spreading Consolini, Giuseppe Materassi, Massimo Chaos Solitons Fractals Article In this brief work we present a novel approach to the logistic dynamics of populations and epidemic spreading that can take into account of the complex nature of such a process in several real situations, where due to different agents the dynamics is no longer characterized by a single characteristic timescale, but conversely by a distribution of time scales, rendered via a time-dependent growth rate. In detail, a differential equation containing a power-law time dependent growth rate is proposed, whose solution, named Stretched Logistic Function, provides a modified version of the usual logistic function. The model equation is inspired by and applied to the recent spreading on COVID-19 disease in Italy, showing how the real dynamics of infection spreading is characterized by a time dependent dynamics. A speculative discussion of the Stretched Logistic Function in relation to diffusion processes is attempted. Elsevier Ltd. 2020-11 2020-07-22 /pmc/articles/PMC7374175/ /pubmed/32834630 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110113 Text en © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Consolini, Giuseppe
Materassi, Massimo
A stretched logistic equation for pandemic spreading
title A stretched logistic equation for pandemic spreading
title_full A stretched logistic equation for pandemic spreading
title_fullStr A stretched logistic equation for pandemic spreading
title_full_unstemmed A stretched logistic equation for pandemic spreading
title_short A stretched logistic equation for pandemic spreading
title_sort stretched logistic equation for pandemic spreading
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7374175/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32834630
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110113
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