The applicability of commonly used predictive scoring systems in Indigenous Australians with sepsis: An observational study

BACKGROUND: Indigenous Australians suffer a disproportionate burden of sepsis, however, the performance of scoring systems that predict mortality in Indigenous patients with critical illness is incompletely defined. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study was performed at an Australian tertiary-referral hospital between January 2014 and June 2017, and enrolled consecutive Indigenous and non-Indigenous adults admitted to ICU with sepsis. The ability of the ANZROD, APACHE-II, APACHE-III, SAPS-II, SOFA and qSOFA scores to predict death before ICU discharge in the two populations was compared. RESULTS: There were 442 individuals enrolled in the study, 145 (33%) identified as Indigenous. Indigenous patients were younger than non-Indigenous patients (median (interquartile range (IQR) 53 (43–60) versus 65 (52–73) years, p = 0.0001) and comorbidity was more common (118/145 (81%) versus 204/297 (69%), p = 0.005). Comorbidities that were more common in the Indigenous patients included diabetes mellitus (84/145 (58%) versus 67/297 (23%), p<0.0001), renal disease (56/145 (39%) versus 29/297 (10%), p<0.0001) and cardiovascular disease (58/145 (40%) versus 83/297 (28%), p = 0.01). The use of supportive care (including vasopressors, mechanical ventilation and renal replacement therapy) was similar in Indigenous and non-Indigenous patients, and the two populations had an overall case-fatality rate that was comparable (17/145 (12%) and 38/297 (13%) (p = 0.75)), although Indigenous patients died at a younger age (median (IQR): 54 (50–60) versus 70 (61–76) years, p = 0.0001). There was no significant difference in the ability of any the scores to predict mortality in the two populations. CONCLUSIONS: Although the crude case-fatality rates of Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians admitted to ICU with sepsis is comparable, Indigenous patients die at a much younger age. Despite this, the ability of commonly used scoring systems to predict outcome in Indigenous Australians is similar to that of non-Indigenous Australians, supporting their use in ICUs with a significant Indigenous patient population and in clinical trials that enrol Indigenous Australians.