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Using deep learning to predict the hand-foot-and-mouth disease of enterovirus A71 subtype in Beijing from 2011 to 2018

Hand-foot-and-month disease (HFMD), especially the enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) subtype, is a major health problem in Beijing, China. Previous studies mainly used regressive models to forecast the prevalence of HFMD, ignoring its intrinsic age groups. This study aims to predict HFMD of EV-A71 subtype in...

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Autores principales: Wang, Yuejiao, Cao, Zhidong, Zeng, Daniel, Wang, Xiaoli, Wang, Quanyi
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7376109/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32699245
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-68840-3
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author Wang, Yuejiao
Cao, Zhidong
Zeng, Daniel
Wang, Xiaoli
Wang, Quanyi
author_facet Wang, Yuejiao
Cao, Zhidong
Zeng, Daniel
Wang, Xiaoli
Wang, Quanyi
author_sort Wang, Yuejiao
collection PubMed
description Hand-foot-and-month disease (HFMD), especially the enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) subtype, is a major health problem in Beijing, China. Previous studies mainly used regressive models to forecast the prevalence of HFMD, ignoring its intrinsic age groups. This study aims to predict HFMD of EV-A71 subtype in three age groups (0–3, 3–6 and > 6 years old) from 2011 to 2018 using residual-convolutional-recurrent neural network (CNNRNN-Res), convolutional-recurrent neural network (CNNRNN) and recurrent neural network (RNN). They were compared with auto-regressio, global auto-regression and vector auto-regression on both short-term and long-term prediction. Results showed that CNNRNN-Res and RNN had higher accuracies on point forecast tasks, as well as robust performances in long-term prediction. Three deep learning models also had better skills in peak intensity forecast, and CNNRNN-Res achieved the best results in the peak month forecast. We also found that three age groups had consistent outbreak trends and similar patterns of prediction errors. These results highlight the superior performance of deep learning models in HFMD prediction and can assist the decision-makers to refine the HFMD control measures according to age groups.
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spelling pubmed-73761092020-07-24 Using deep learning to predict the hand-foot-and-mouth disease of enterovirus A71 subtype in Beijing from 2011 to 2018 Wang, Yuejiao Cao, Zhidong Zeng, Daniel Wang, Xiaoli Wang, Quanyi Sci Rep Article Hand-foot-and-month disease (HFMD), especially the enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) subtype, is a major health problem in Beijing, China. Previous studies mainly used regressive models to forecast the prevalence of HFMD, ignoring its intrinsic age groups. This study aims to predict HFMD of EV-A71 subtype in three age groups (0–3, 3–6 and > 6 years old) from 2011 to 2018 using residual-convolutional-recurrent neural network (CNNRNN-Res), convolutional-recurrent neural network (CNNRNN) and recurrent neural network (RNN). They were compared with auto-regressio, global auto-regression and vector auto-regression on both short-term and long-term prediction. Results showed that CNNRNN-Res and RNN had higher accuracies on point forecast tasks, as well as robust performances in long-term prediction. Three deep learning models also had better skills in peak intensity forecast, and CNNRNN-Res achieved the best results in the peak month forecast. We also found that three age groups had consistent outbreak trends and similar patterns of prediction errors. These results highlight the superior performance of deep learning models in HFMD prediction and can assist the decision-makers to refine the HFMD control measures according to age groups. Nature Publishing Group UK 2020-07-22 /pmc/articles/PMC7376109/ /pubmed/32699245 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-68840-3 Text en © The Author(s) 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Article
Wang, Yuejiao
Cao, Zhidong
Zeng, Daniel
Wang, Xiaoli
Wang, Quanyi
Using deep learning to predict the hand-foot-and-mouth disease of enterovirus A71 subtype in Beijing from 2011 to 2018
title Using deep learning to predict the hand-foot-and-mouth disease of enterovirus A71 subtype in Beijing from 2011 to 2018
title_full Using deep learning to predict the hand-foot-and-mouth disease of enterovirus A71 subtype in Beijing from 2011 to 2018
title_fullStr Using deep learning to predict the hand-foot-and-mouth disease of enterovirus A71 subtype in Beijing from 2011 to 2018
title_full_unstemmed Using deep learning to predict the hand-foot-and-mouth disease of enterovirus A71 subtype in Beijing from 2011 to 2018
title_short Using deep learning to predict the hand-foot-and-mouth disease of enterovirus A71 subtype in Beijing from 2011 to 2018
title_sort using deep learning to predict the hand-foot-and-mouth disease of enterovirus a71 subtype in beijing from 2011 to 2018
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7376109/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32699245
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-68840-3
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