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SEIR model for COVID-19 dynamics incorporating the environment and social distancing
OBJECTIVE: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a pandemic respiratory illness spreading from person-to-person caused by a novel coronavirus and poses a serious public health risk. The goal of this study was to apply a modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) compartmental mathemat...
Autores principales: | , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
BioMed Central
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7376536/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32703315 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13104-020-05192-1 |
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author | Mwalili, Samuel Kimathi, Mark Ojiambo, Viona Gathungu, Duncan Mbogo, Rachel |
author_facet | Mwalili, Samuel Kimathi, Mark Ojiambo, Viona Gathungu, Duncan Mbogo, Rachel |
author_sort | Mwalili, Samuel |
collection | PubMed |
description | OBJECTIVE: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a pandemic respiratory illness spreading from person-to-person caused by a novel coronavirus and poses a serious public health risk. The goal of this study was to apply a modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) compartmental mathematical model for prediction of COVID-19 epidemic dynamics incorporating pathogen in the environment and interventions. The next generation matrix approach was used to determine the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] . The model equations are solved numerically using fourth and fifth order Runge–Kutta methods. RESULTS: We found an [Formula: see text] of 2.03, implying that the pandemic will persist in the human population in the absence of strong control measures. Results after simulating various scenarios indicate that disregarding social distancing and hygiene measures can have devastating effects on the human population. The model shows that quarantine of contacts and isolation of cases can help halt the spread on novel coronavirus. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7376536 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | BioMed Central |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-73765362020-07-23 SEIR model for COVID-19 dynamics incorporating the environment and social distancing Mwalili, Samuel Kimathi, Mark Ojiambo, Viona Gathungu, Duncan Mbogo, Rachel BMC Res Notes Research Note OBJECTIVE: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a pandemic respiratory illness spreading from person-to-person caused by a novel coronavirus and poses a serious public health risk. The goal of this study was to apply a modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) compartmental mathematical model for prediction of COVID-19 epidemic dynamics incorporating pathogen in the environment and interventions. The next generation matrix approach was used to determine the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] . The model equations are solved numerically using fourth and fifth order Runge–Kutta methods. RESULTS: We found an [Formula: see text] of 2.03, implying that the pandemic will persist in the human population in the absence of strong control measures. Results after simulating various scenarios indicate that disregarding social distancing and hygiene measures can have devastating effects on the human population. The model shows that quarantine of contacts and isolation of cases can help halt the spread on novel coronavirus. BioMed Central 2020-07-23 /pmc/articles/PMC7376536/ /pubmed/32703315 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13104-020-05192-1 Text en © The Author(s) 2020 Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data. |
spellingShingle | Research Note Mwalili, Samuel Kimathi, Mark Ojiambo, Viona Gathungu, Duncan Mbogo, Rachel SEIR model for COVID-19 dynamics incorporating the environment and social distancing |
title | SEIR model for COVID-19 dynamics incorporating the environment and social distancing |
title_full | SEIR model for COVID-19 dynamics incorporating the environment and social distancing |
title_fullStr | SEIR model for COVID-19 dynamics incorporating the environment and social distancing |
title_full_unstemmed | SEIR model for COVID-19 dynamics incorporating the environment and social distancing |
title_short | SEIR model for COVID-19 dynamics incorporating the environment and social distancing |
title_sort | seir model for covid-19 dynamics incorporating the environment and social distancing |
topic | Research Note |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7376536/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32703315 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13104-020-05192-1 |
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