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Estimating the introduction time of highly pathogenic avian influenza into poultry flocks

The estimation of farm-specific time windows for the introduction of highly-pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus can be used to increase the efficiency of disease control measures such as contact tracing and may help to identify risk factors for virus introduction. The aims of this research are t...

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Autores principales: Hobbelen, Peter H. F., Elbers, Armin R. W., Werkman, Marleen, Koch, Guus, Velkers, Francisca C., Stegeman, Arjan, Hagenaars, Thomas J.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7381656/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32709965
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-68623-w
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author Hobbelen, Peter H. F.
Elbers, Armin R. W.
Werkman, Marleen
Koch, Guus
Velkers, Francisca C.
Stegeman, Arjan
Hagenaars, Thomas J.
author_facet Hobbelen, Peter H. F.
Elbers, Armin R. W.
Werkman, Marleen
Koch, Guus
Velkers, Francisca C.
Stegeman, Arjan
Hagenaars, Thomas J.
author_sort Hobbelen, Peter H. F.
collection PubMed
description The estimation of farm-specific time windows for the introduction of highly-pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus can be used to increase the efficiency of disease control measures such as contact tracing and may help to identify risk factors for virus introduction. The aims of this research are to (1) develop and test an accurate approach for estimating farm-specific virus introduction windows and (2) evaluate this approach by applying it to 11 outbreaks of HPAI (H5N8) on Dutch commercial poultry farms during the years 2014 and 2016. We used a stochastic simulation model with susceptible, infectious and recovered/removed disease stages to generate distributions for the period from virus introduction to detection. The model was parameterized using data from the literature, except for the within-flock transmission rate, which was estimated from disease-induced mortality data using two newly developed methods that describe HPAI outbreaks using either a deterministic model (A) or a stochastic approach (B). Model testing using simulated outbreaks showed that both method A and B performed well. Application to field data showed that method A could be successfully applied to 8 out of 11 HPAI H5N8 outbreaks and is the most generally applicable one, when data on disease-induced mortality is scarce.
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spelling pubmed-73816562020-07-28 Estimating the introduction time of highly pathogenic avian influenza into poultry flocks Hobbelen, Peter H. F. Elbers, Armin R. W. Werkman, Marleen Koch, Guus Velkers, Francisca C. Stegeman, Arjan Hagenaars, Thomas J. Sci Rep Article The estimation of farm-specific time windows for the introduction of highly-pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus can be used to increase the efficiency of disease control measures such as contact tracing and may help to identify risk factors for virus introduction. The aims of this research are to (1) develop and test an accurate approach for estimating farm-specific virus introduction windows and (2) evaluate this approach by applying it to 11 outbreaks of HPAI (H5N8) on Dutch commercial poultry farms during the years 2014 and 2016. We used a stochastic simulation model with susceptible, infectious and recovered/removed disease stages to generate distributions for the period from virus introduction to detection. The model was parameterized using data from the literature, except for the within-flock transmission rate, which was estimated from disease-induced mortality data using two newly developed methods that describe HPAI outbreaks using either a deterministic model (A) or a stochastic approach (B). Model testing using simulated outbreaks showed that both method A and B performed well. Application to field data showed that method A could be successfully applied to 8 out of 11 HPAI H5N8 outbreaks and is the most generally applicable one, when data on disease-induced mortality is scarce. Nature Publishing Group UK 2020-07-24 /pmc/articles/PMC7381656/ /pubmed/32709965 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-68623-w Text en © The Author(s) 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Article
Hobbelen, Peter H. F.
Elbers, Armin R. W.
Werkman, Marleen
Koch, Guus
Velkers, Francisca C.
Stegeman, Arjan
Hagenaars, Thomas J.
Estimating the introduction time of highly pathogenic avian influenza into poultry flocks
title Estimating the introduction time of highly pathogenic avian influenza into poultry flocks
title_full Estimating the introduction time of highly pathogenic avian influenza into poultry flocks
title_fullStr Estimating the introduction time of highly pathogenic avian influenza into poultry flocks
title_full_unstemmed Estimating the introduction time of highly pathogenic avian influenza into poultry flocks
title_short Estimating the introduction time of highly pathogenic avian influenza into poultry flocks
title_sort estimating the introduction time of highly pathogenic avian influenza into poultry flocks
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7381656/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32709965
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-68623-w
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