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Six hundred years of South American tree rings reveal an increase in severe hydroclimatic events since mid-20th century
South American (SA) societies are highly vulnerable to droughts and pluvials, but lack of long-term climate observations severely limits our understanding of the global processes driving climatic variability in the region. The number and quality of SA climate-sensitive tree ring chronologies have si...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
National Academy of Sciences
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7382209/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32632003 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2002411117 |
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author | Morales, Mariano S. Cook, Edward R. Barichivich, Jonathan Christie, Duncan A. Villalba, Ricardo LeQuesne, Carlos Srur, Ana M. Ferrero, M. Eugenia González-Reyes, Álvaro Couvreux, Fleur Matskovsky, Vladimir Aravena, Juan C. Lara, Antonio Mundo, Ignacio A. Rojas, Facundo Prieto, María R. Smerdon, Jason E. Bianchi, Lucas O. Masiokas, Mariano H. Urrutia-Jalabert, Rocio Rodriguez-Catón, Milagros Muñoz, Ariel A. Rojas-Badilla, Moises Alvarez, Claudio Lopez, Lidio Luckman, Brian H. Lister, David Harris, Ian Jones, Philip D. Williams, A. Park Velazquez, Gonzalo Aliste, Diego Aguilera-Betti, Isabella Marcotti, Eugenia Flores, Felipe Muñoz, Tomás Cuq, Emilio Boninsegna, José A. |
author_facet | Morales, Mariano S. Cook, Edward R. Barichivich, Jonathan Christie, Duncan A. Villalba, Ricardo LeQuesne, Carlos Srur, Ana M. Ferrero, M. Eugenia González-Reyes, Álvaro Couvreux, Fleur Matskovsky, Vladimir Aravena, Juan C. Lara, Antonio Mundo, Ignacio A. Rojas, Facundo Prieto, María R. Smerdon, Jason E. Bianchi, Lucas O. Masiokas, Mariano H. Urrutia-Jalabert, Rocio Rodriguez-Catón, Milagros Muñoz, Ariel A. Rojas-Badilla, Moises Alvarez, Claudio Lopez, Lidio Luckman, Brian H. Lister, David Harris, Ian Jones, Philip D. Williams, A. Park Velazquez, Gonzalo Aliste, Diego Aguilera-Betti, Isabella Marcotti, Eugenia Flores, Felipe Muñoz, Tomás Cuq, Emilio Boninsegna, José A. |
author_sort | Morales, Mariano S. |
collection | PubMed |
description | South American (SA) societies are highly vulnerable to droughts and pluvials, but lack of long-term climate observations severely limits our understanding of the global processes driving climatic variability in the region. The number and quality of SA climate-sensitive tree ring chronologies have significantly increased in recent decades, now providing a robust network of 286 records for characterizing hydroclimate variability since 1400 CE. We combine this network with a self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) dataset to derive the South American Drought Atlas (SADA) over the continent south of 12°S. The gridded annual reconstruction of austral summer scPDSI is the most spatially complete estimate of SA hydroclimate to date, and well matches past historical dry/wet events. Relating the SADA to the Australia–New Zealand Drought Atlas, sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure fields, we determine that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) are strongly associated with spatially extended droughts and pluvials over the SADA domain during the past several centuries. SADA also exhibits more extended severe droughts and extreme pluvials since the mid-20th century. Extensive droughts are consistent with the observed 20th-century trend toward positive SAM anomalies concomitant with the weakening of midlatitude Westerlies, while low-level moisture transport intensified by global warming has favored extreme rainfall across the subtropics. The SADA thus provides a long-term context for observed hydroclimatic changes and for 21st-century Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections that suggest SA will experience more frequent/severe droughts and rainfall events as a consequence of increasing greenhouse gas emissions. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7382209 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | National Academy of Sciences |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-73822092020-07-30 Six hundred years of South American tree rings reveal an increase in severe hydroclimatic events since mid-20th century Morales, Mariano S. Cook, Edward R. Barichivich, Jonathan Christie, Duncan A. Villalba, Ricardo LeQuesne, Carlos Srur, Ana M. Ferrero, M. Eugenia González-Reyes, Álvaro Couvreux, Fleur Matskovsky, Vladimir Aravena, Juan C. Lara, Antonio Mundo, Ignacio A. Rojas, Facundo Prieto, María R. Smerdon, Jason E. Bianchi, Lucas O. Masiokas, Mariano H. Urrutia-Jalabert, Rocio Rodriguez-Catón, Milagros Muñoz, Ariel A. Rojas-Badilla, Moises Alvarez, Claudio Lopez, Lidio Luckman, Brian H. Lister, David Harris, Ian Jones, Philip D. Williams, A. Park Velazquez, Gonzalo Aliste, Diego Aguilera-Betti, Isabella Marcotti, Eugenia Flores, Felipe Muñoz, Tomás Cuq, Emilio Boninsegna, José A. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Physical Sciences South American (SA) societies are highly vulnerable to droughts and pluvials, but lack of long-term climate observations severely limits our understanding of the global processes driving climatic variability in the region. The number and quality of SA climate-sensitive tree ring chronologies have significantly increased in recent decades, now providing a robust network of 286 records for characterizing hydroclimate variability since 1400 CE. We combine this network with a self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) dataset to derive the South American Drought Atlas (SADA) over the continent south of 12°S. The gridded annual reconstruction of austral summer scPDSI is the most spatially complete estimate of SA hydroclimate to date, and well matches past historical dry/wet events. Relating the SADA to the Australia–New Zealand Drought Atlas, sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure fields, we determine that the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) are strongly associated with spatially extended droughts and pluvials over the SADA domain during the past several centuries. SADA also exhibits more extended severe droughts and extreme pluvials since the mid-20th century. Extensive droughts are consistent with the observed 20th-century trend toward positive SAM anomalies concomitant with the weakening of midlatitude Westerlies, while low-level moisture transport intensified by global warming has favored extreme rainfall across the subtropics. The SADA thus provides a long-term context for observed hydroclimatic changes and for 21st-century Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections that suggest SA will experience more frequent/severe droughts and rainfall events as a consequence of increasing greenhouse gas emissions. National Academy of Sciences 2020-07-21 2020-07-06 /pmc/articles/PMC7382209/ /pubmed/32632003 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2002411117 Text en Copyright © 2020 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND) (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Physical Sciences Morales, Mariano S. Cook, Edward R. Barichivich, Jonathan Christie, Duncan A. Villalba, Ricardo LeQuesne, Carlos Srur, Ana M. Ferrero, M. Eugenia González-Reyes, Álvaro Couvreux, Fleur Matskovsky, Vladimir Aravena, Juan C. Lara, Antonio Mundo, Ignacio A. Rojas, Facundo Prieto, María R. Smerdon, Jason E. Bianchi, Lucas O. Masiokas, Mariano H. Urrutia-Jalabert, Rocio Rodriguez-Catón, Milagros Muñoz, Ariel A. Rojas-Badilla, Moises Alvarez, Claudio Lopez, Lidio Luckman, Brian H. Lister, David Harris, Ian Jones, Philip D. Williams, A. Park Velazquez, Gonzalo Aliste, Diego Aguilera-Betti, Isabella Marcotti, Eugenia Flores, Felipe Muñoz, Tomás Cuq, Emilio Boninsegna, José A. Six hundred years of South American tree rings reveal an increase in severe hydroclimatic events since mid-20th century |
title | Six hundred years of South American tree rings reveal an increase in severe hydroclimatic events since mid-20th century |
title_full | Six hundred years of South American tree rings reveal an increase in severe hydroclimatic events since mid-20th century |
title_fullStr | Six hundred years of South American tree rings reveal an increase in severe hydroclimatic events since mid-20th century |
title_full_unstemmed | Six hundred years of South American tree rings reveal an increase in severe hydroclimatic events since mid-20th century |
title_short | Six hundred years of South American tree rings reveal an increase in severe hydroclimatic events since mid-20th century |
title_sort | six hundred years of south american tree rings reveal an increase in severe hydroclimatic events since mid-20th century |
topic | Physical Sciences |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7382209/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32632003 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2002411117 |
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