A logistic model for age-specific COVID-19 case-fatality rates

To develop a mathematical model to characterize age-specific case-fatality rates (CFR) of COVID-19. Based on 2 large-scale Chinese and Italian CFR data, a logistic model was derived to provide quantitative insight on the dynamics between CFR and age. We inferred that CFR increased faster in Italy th...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Gao, Xiang, Dong, Qunfeng
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Oxford University Press 2020
Materias:
Brief Communications
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7382619/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32734152
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jamiaopen/ooaa025
Descripción
Sumario:To develop a mathematical model to characterize age-specific case-fatality rates (CFR) of COVID-19. Based on 2 large-scale Chinese and Italian CFR data, a logistic model was derived to provide quantitative insight on the dynamics between CFR and age. We inferred that CFR increased faster in Italy than in China, as well as in females over males. In addition, while CFR increased with age, the rate of growth eventually slowed down, with a predicted theoretical upper limit for males (32%), females (21%), and the general population (23%). Our logistic model provided quantitative insight on the dynamics of CFR.

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